Weather Forecast

Hawaii County Weather Forecast for July 11, 2022

July 11, 2022, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 66 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 66 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to 65 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to 65 to 74 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally strong trades will focus cloud and showers over windward and mauka areas through Tuesday. The arrival of remnant moisture from a decaying tropical low will favor an increase in showers late Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.

Discussion

Greater stability compared to recent days is evident on the latest soundings out of Lihue and Hilo, a consequence of building mid- level ridging and dry advection centered around 700mb. This is contributing to decreased shower coverage and intensity over the forecast area this morning. Little change in expected through the near term as mid-level ridging and dry air aloft hold firm, reinforcing existing stability through Tuesday. Locally strong trades will ease just slightly during this time and will allow the wind advisory to expire on schedule with the morning forecast package.
Attention then turns to the remnant tropical circulation, currently approaching 140W, and its attendant moisture field which expands well westward to around 145W. As the circulation transitions to a a shallow open wave the associated moisture field will tend to become increasingly elongated and more aligned with the prevailing trade winds. This results in some lead moisture potentially grazing the windward zones as early as Tuesday evening which would result in an increase in shower coverage mainly over the typical windward and mauka zones. Otherwise, model consensus remains in tact that the weakening surface trough and deepest will reach the eastern end of the state during the predawn hours Wednesday. Forecast soundings indicate saturation through about 10-12kft which will allow widespread showers to develop over all windward zones Wednesday and persist through Wednesday night. Low stability within this layer will favor frequent moderate showers while strengthening trades encourage frequent leeward drift of showers quite possibly persisting through the typically- unfavorable daytime hours on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the hostile mid-level environment, lack of convective instability, and the relatively shallow nature of the incoming moisture field will ultimately limit heavy rainfall potential. One potential exception will be Leeward Big Island where diurnal convection may capitalize on the rich low-level moisture field once it becomes established on the lee side of the island no later than Thursday afternoon. Even then, however, the column will be too warm/stable to support thunder and extensive cloud cover may further limit destabilization there. The trailing subsidence wake as the trough departs westward early Thursday will favor a drying trend through the day.
Global models have trended away from their depiction of deepening upper trough over the islands this weekend, instead tending to position it west of the forecast area. This has contributed to decreased spread among the solutions regarding the track Darby and its eventual remnant moisture field which is now modeled to arrive on former-Bonnie's heels this weekend. This would bring another round of widespread rainfall, mainly focused over windward and mauka zones. With that said, evolution of the aforementioned upper trough has been a source of uncertainty in the extended range and caution will be exercised as this time period enters the medium range. No changes made from day 5 onward at this time.

Aviation

A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian islands will continue to produce moderate to breezy winds today. Passing showers along windward and mountain slopes will continue to produce brief periods of MVFR conditions over windward airfields. More isolated shower coverage may develop over leeward areas.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of all island mountains. This AIRMET will likely continue through Tuesday.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through Tuesday, then potentially increase to strong levels for most waters Tuesday night through midweek as remnants of former Hurricane Bonnie move through. Seas will respond and become rough through this midweek period, especially south of the Big Island and through the windier channels if this scenario evolves. Although the trades may trend back to fresh to strong levels Thursday through Friday, the potential for another round of strong winds and rough seas will become a possibility over the weekend as remnants of Hurricane Darby move through.
Surf along south facing shores will trend up this week as overlapping southerly pulses move through from an ongoing active pattern within Hawaii's swell window near New Zealand. Nearshore PacIOOS and offshore NDBC buoys to the south reflect a small, long-period, south-southwest pulse moving through this morning, which has increased slightly overnight (51002 currently running around 2 ft within the 13-17 sec band…buoy 51004 southeast of the Big Island up to 3.5 feet). The next pulse should begin to fill in through the day Tuesday, then peak through midweek. The largest surf is expected this weekend, with heights likely topping out above the advisory level. Recent altimeter pass Sunday showed seas within the fetch focused at the islands topping out around 45 ft…one reading of 49 ft).
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through the week, especially as the winds potentially ramp up through the midweek period and this weekend as the aforementioned tropical remnants move through the region.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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