Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 67 near the shore to 55 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with showers likely in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 67 near the shore to 55 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with showers likely in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northeast up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 50 to 57 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will likely ease Friday and Saturday then rebuild Sunday into early next week. A band of enhanced moisture will move through the islands late this afternoon into early Wednesday, bringing an increase in showers to windward areas and sending a few more showers into leeward locales. Otherwise, typical trade wind weather will prevail with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, along with the occasional brief shower spilling into leeward communities.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1035 mb high is centered around 1700 miles northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows the cloud band which moved through the islands yesterday afternoon and evening has exited southwest of the state, leaving mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in place. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions aside from a few sprinkles in leeward locales. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends.
A rather typical June weather pattern will persist through the first week of summer. Surface high pressure anchored far northeast of the state will maintain moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds into Thursday. The trades will likely drop a notch Friday and Saturday as the surface high weakens, and building high pressure north of the state should lead to strengthening trade winds Sunday into early next week. Trades will continue to focus clouds and modest showers over windward slopes through the week, though small pockets of enhanced moisture will periodically boost rainfall. One area of moisture is expected to move through the islands late this afternoon into early Wednesday, bringing an increase in showers to windward areas and sending a few more showers into leeward locales. Otherwise, showers will largely be confined to windward areas through early next week, with a few showers briefly spreading to parched leeward areas from Maui to Kauai, while scattered showers can be expected each afternoon and evening over leeward sections of the Big Island.

Aviation

A high pressure system far northeast of the state will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in the forecast through Wednesday. Expect brief passing showers mainly over windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Mostly VFR conditions are expected with brief MVFR ceilings over windward airfields.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect.

Marine

Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will continue through midweek, then potentially ease to moderate to fresh levels by Friday as the ridge weakens. The Small Craft Advisory for the typically windier areas around Maui County and Big Island remains in effect through this afternoon. This may need to be extended into Wednesday later today depending on observations and trends.
Surf along south facing shores will build through the day as a fresh south-southwest swell continues to fill in. This swell is expected to peak later today through Wednesday, then slowly ease through the second half of the week. Offshore buoys reflect an upward trend this morning with the peak energy centered around the 17 and 19 second bands. For the extended, plenty of action east- southeast of New Zealand will translate to another run of above average surf toward the end the month, beginning late this weekend.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will return to our typical summer levels today as the north-northwest swell moves out.
Surf along east facing shores will be small and choppy each day as the trades hold. Guidance does depict a small to moderate northeast swell moving through next weekend from a batch of strong northeast winds forecast off the west coast.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov