Today: Mostly cloudy with showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 87. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 66 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 87. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 66 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy with showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 90 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to 48 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 88 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming north up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Showers over Maui County and the Big Island will shift west of the area early this morning giving way to mostly dry conditions areawide. Locally breezy trades will then focus increased showers over windward and mauka slopes through the end of the week. Occasional leeward showers will also be possible, mainly overnight.
Discussion
Locally breezy trades are pushing extensive low clouds and showers over the windward slopes of the Big Island early this morning. Pops have been adjusted upward for the next several hours there, along with windward sections of Maui County to account for another batch of showers that approaching from the east which will arrive shortly. Otherwise, the latest VIIRS imagery indicates very little cloud cover upstream of the smaller islands while local radar shows virtually no showers over the western end of the state. This trend will continue through today as the upper low becomes established overhead. Steady erosion of the inversion prior to the arrival of deeper upstream moisture will only facilitate further mixing-out of existing boundary layer moisture. As such, lowered pops considerably today, limiting mention of isolated showers only to the higher windward terrain.
The well-advertised pool of remnant frontal moisture will reach the islands during the latter half of tonight, gradually working through the forecast area tonight into Thursday. During this time, trades will slightly weaken as they deliver increased showers, some of moderate intensity, to windward zones. Likewise, more frequent leeward showers can be expected, especially overnight and in the morning.
Forecast soundings indicate that stability will be slow to return in the wake of the departing upper low late this week. Thus, another round of increased trade wind showers will be possible late Friday into Saturday as another batch of low-level moisture works through the area. Overall messaging is that Wednesday through the first half of the weekend will be characterized by slightly wetter-than-normal trades.
Aviation
Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue through forecast period. Clouds and showers will favor windward coasts and slopes through the morning and overnight hours. The large area of low clouds that moved into windward Big Island last night is expected to linger through the early morning hours before scattering out later this morning as the sun rises.
AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration will remain posted through at least 17Z, with conditions expected to slowly improve through 20Z.
AIRMET TANGO remains posted for TEMPO low-level turbulence below 8000 ft over and immediately south through west of mountains on all islands.
Marine
The overnight ASCAT passes showed Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds over additional waters, which paired up with some of the high resolution models. Have added additional coastal waters to the SCA through tonight based on those models, using the National Blend of Models to nudge the forecast higher. Confidence drops off after tonight, which was the reasoning for only adding those waters today and tonight. Have extended the SCA for the typical windier areas through Wednesday night. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast with the morning package.
High pressure to the north of the islands will maintain the moderate to locally strong trade winds through the end of the week. As the high moves to the east this weekend, the winds over the region may veer to the southeast, but time will tell how much of an impact that will have on wind speeds.
Rough, choppy surf is expected along east facing shores through the week from the locally generated wind waves. The current small, west-northwest swell will continue to decline over the next couple of days. A slightly larger, and longer period northwest swell will build Thursday night and continue through the weekend, boosting swell along exposed swell. Overlapping background south swells will continue to keep small surf heights along south facing shores through Wednesday. A slightly larger, long period southwest swell generated from the Tasman Sea basin will arrive on Thursday, elevating south shore surf through next weekend.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Big Island Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments
