Hilo

Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Today: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure drifting north of the state will maintain a trade wind weather pattern across the islands through the remainder of the work week. Clouds and passing light showers will favor windward and mauka areas, while diurnal sea breeze clouds and isolated showers continue across favored leeward and interior sections. A slightly wetter trade wind pattern may develop over the area this weekend.

Discussion

Satellite and radar trends show a majority of clouds and showers this morning lingering along windward zones, and anchored to convergence flow along steep terrain and in channels between islands. The latest sounding data from PHLI and PHTO shows a stable air mass centered over the state as a strong trade wind inversion remains, with extremely dry conditions extending above the inversion through mid and upper levels. The latest model data and forecast soundings show this dry and stable air mass lingering through midweek, which will continue to limit the areal coverage and intensity of showers to mainly windward and mauka areas. The air mass will remain rather dry and stable, so only brief passing showers are expected again over windward and mauka areas Thursday into Friday.
With high pressure ridging settled in northeast of the state, light to moderate trade winds are expected to remain across the islands today through midweek. This pattern will allow for afternoon sea breeze clouds and isolated showers across some sheltered leeward areas. Sea breeze clouds and brief showers will then trend toward mauka and adjacent waters during the evening as a land breeze circulation develops.
Heading into the weekend, the surface high will be positioned far northeast of the area, with trade winds expected to weaken slightly. There are slight differences between the GFS and ECMWF in the finer details. The GFS shows an increase in moisture moving up over the area from the east southeast while the ECMWF remains drier. Thus we may see some increase in showers at that time primarily for windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge north of the state will weaken slightly today. Expect light to moderate trade winds as a result with sea breezes developing along terrain sheltered western slopes of all islands. Stable conditions will prevail across the region with only brief passing showers favoring the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Mostly VFR conditions are expected.
AIRMET Sierra in effect for mountain obscuration over eastern slopes of the Big Island. Low cloud ceilings will diminish a few hours after sunrise this morning. No other AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Trade winds will persist in the moderate to fresh range through the forecast period.
Surf heights along south facing shores will steadily decline through mid-week. The next long-period south swell will fill in late Thursday into the weekend, bringing above average surf. Surf along north and west facing shores will remain nearly flat through today. A small very short period bump is expected for north and west facing shores today into Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will gradually decline as the trades weaken.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov