Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 85 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 69 to 75 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A return of a mostly dry and stable pattern with moderate easterly trade winds is expected through much of the week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, mainly overnight through the morning periods. Trade winds will briefly ease Monday night through midweek and again next weekend, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established over portions of the state.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the moisture axis associated with the old boundary that brought the much needed rainfall to the western end of the state over the past few days diminishing and lifting northwestward and away from the state today. This combined with rising upper heights, the subtropical ridge shifting northward, and drier air filling in from east to west will support a more stable trade wind pattern returning for much of the week. The ridge will weaken by Tuesday due to a front passing far to the north, which may allow the trades to briefly ease enough for localized land and sea breezes to develop. The stable environment and dry conditions (PWs around or less than inch) will limit rainfall chances and any accumulations. A similar scenario is possible next weekend as a weakness in the ridge forms.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge building north of the Hawaiian Islands will strengthen the trade winds into the moderate to breezy range today. This trade wind weather pattern will continue through the week with clouds and brief passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. As trade winds increase there will be some turbulence downwind of terrain, and AIRMET Tango may be needed later today.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscurations over interior sections of Kauai due to lingering moisture and clouds. Expect this AIRMET to be dropped on Kauai later this morning. There are no other AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

A high to the far northeast of the state will support moderate to strong trades today and into tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through tomorrow afternoon. The high will weaken slightly during the first half of the week, translating to slightly weaker trades. During the second half of the week, a new high will build north of the area and move east, which will strengthen trades slightly.
Surf heights along south facing shores will hold near average today, drop below average tomorrow through mid-week. The next long-period south swell will fill in Thursday through the rest of next week, bringing above average surf. In the long range, recent altimeter passes in the last 24 hours showed wave heights around 30 to 38 feet just east of New Zealand, which will translate to additional above average south shore surf events lasting into early June.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain small to flat through tomorrow. The next northwest swell will generate a ripple for north and west facing shores late Tuesday into Wednesday then slowly fade through the rest of the week.
Small, choppy surf will return along east facing shores today and tomorrow, before subsiding a notch Tuesday and holding through the rest of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov