Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds will continue today from a high pressure ridge north of the state. Expect land and sea breezes to develop on Monday as the ridge north of the islands weakens. A cold front approaching the islands from the northwest on Tuesday produces southerly winds over Kauai and Oahu, this front will stall near Kauai on Wednesday and produce a period of unstable showers for the western islands. Elsewhere land and sea breezes will continue through Thursday for the eastern half of the state with island interior clouds and a few showers favoring the afternoon to early evening. Trade winds begin to return to the eastern half of the state by late Friday spreading to the western islands on Saturday.
Discussion
The satellite and radar imagery shows bands of clouds and showers drifting westward into the windward and mountain areas of each island this morning. A weakening cold front continues to approach the islands from the northwest. An upper level subtropical jet stream will produce high level cirrus clouds over the next few days, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors.
Trade winds speeds remain in the moderate to locally breezy range today. Expect brief periods of showers through the day mainly over windward and mountain areas.
The local weather pattern shifts gears later tonight as the high pressure ridge north of the islands weakens and the cold front approaches the state from the northwest. Winds will begin to veer more from the southeast direction and land and sea breezes will develop over each island due to lee wind shadowing effects from the Big Island in this wind pattern. Two weakening cold fronts will move into the region from the northwest producing unstable southerly winds over the western islands of Kauai and Oahu through much of the week. The latest weather model guidance shows this frontal boundary stalling out just west of Kauai on Wednesday. Expect increasing showers mainly over Kauai and Niihau from Tuesday through Thursday with Oahu seeing less of a rainfall enhancement. A few thunderstorms were introduced around Kauai on Wednesday.
The high pressure ridge begins to build back in over the region on Friday with drier and more stable trade winds expected over the eastern half of the state. These trade winds will spread more stable conditions westward and push the stalled frontal cloud band northwestward away from the islands. Expect a hybrid light to moderate trade wind and land sea breeze weather pattern into next Sunday.
Rainfall impacts are currently not expected to be severe over Kauai County as the frontal cloud band with the most unstable moisture and dynamic forcing stalling just west of Kauai. However, if this frontal boundary shifts further eastward, the front may stall over Kauai, and rainfall impacts could become worthy of a Flood Watch on Wednesday. For now, we are anticipating more of a Flood Advisory scenario as the more likely outcome for this event. Stay tuned for forecast updates as this weather story may yet evolve over time.
Aviation
Moderate trades will prevail in most areas today, although sea breezes will develop in some of the more sheltered areas this afternoon. The trades will ease a bit tonight, allowing land breezes to develop in most leeward areas, and possibly even some windward areas over the western end of the state. Clouds and showers will favor windward terrain through the early morning hours, then transition over to leeward mauka areas this afternoon. Predominantly VFR conditions should prevail at most TAF sites.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and immediately downwind of the terrain of Maui County and the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled later this morning.
Marine
Locally strong trade winds will likely continue today. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through this afternoon for the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. The forecast continues to show the background flow will weaken and swing around out of the east-southeast or southeast starting tonight, and continuing through Tuesday. A front moving toward the region from the northwest will likely cause the winds to eventually swing around from a more southerly direction by mid-week. The latest model guidance continues to suggest the south winds may become gusty near Kauai and Niihau on Wednesday.
The current choppy, moderate surf along east facing shores is expected to gradually lower starting tonight due to the winds in the vicinity of the islands weakening, and switching around from the southeast. An upstream fetch of east winds will likely keep small background surf along exposed east facing shores for most of the new week.
A small, medium-period south swell arriving later today may cause a slight increase above background surf heights along south facing shores through Monday. A larger, medium-period south swell filling in on Tuesday will likely produce a noticeable increase in surf heights along south facing shores. This swell is expected to peak on Wednesday. Note that this is also the same the southerly winds may be strengthening, so there is a chance the surf may be choppy, especially along south facing shores of the western islands around mid-meek. This south swell will gradually lower from late Thursday through Friday.
The wave model guidance continues to show only minuscule, short- period northwest swell energy through early Wednesday. Therefore, expect nearly flat conditions along most north and west facing shorelines for the next few days. There continue to be uncertainties in the wave model output, but the latest trends indicate a small, medium-period north swell may arrive Wednesday night. Assuming this swell does show up, it will gradually lower from Thursday night through Friday.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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