Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 50 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Windy. Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 64 to 83. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Today: Windy. Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 64 to 83. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Cloudy and windy. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy and windy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to up to 30 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.

Puna

Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Cloudy and windy. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy and windy. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 30 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 64 to 72 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high northeast of the state will drive breezy trade winds across local waters through late next week, with the strongest trades expected through Saturday. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. An upper low west of the state will bring patchy high cloud cover across the eastern half of the state into Saturday. Shower coverage may increase Monday night and Tuesday as an old frontal remnant swings through the islands.

Discussion

A high far north of the islands is driving breezy trade winds across local waters this afternoon. Satellite loop shows a mix of high and low clouds across the state, with high clouds favoring the eastern two-thirds of the chain. Radar shows isolated to scattered showers moving across windward areas. Models show the high to the north of the islands will slide eastward and strengthen through Saturday, keeping trades on the breezy side through then. This high will weaken Sunday and Sunday night. Expect trade wind speeds to decrease slightly Sunday through much of next week.
Mid and high cloud cover will linger over the islands though Saturday, with high clouds favoring the eastern half of the state. Expect a typical trade wind weather pattern, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Within stronger trade flow, leeward areas may get wet as well from time to time. Lowering inversion heights should lead to a decrease in showers beginning tonight, with drier than normal trade wind weather prevailing through Monday. A band of moisture associated with an old front will swing through the state Monday night and Tuesday, briefly increasing shower coverage. Drier trade wind weather will then return through late next week.

Aviation

This afternoon, extensive high clouds continue to stream across the state from Oahu to the Big Island as an upper low in the vicinity of the state slowly lifts northward through Saturday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure far northeast of the island chain will strengthen as it slides eastward, maintaining breezy to locally strong easterly trade winds throughout the forecast period. Showers and lower clouds will favor north through east sections of the islands throughout the forecast period. Although VFR conditions will prevail at most locations, brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur with any moderate to heavier showers, particularly across the Big Island and Maui.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for terrain above 2500 feet over windward portions of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Though the areal coverage of this AIRMET may need to be adjusted later this evening or tonight, tempo mountain obscuration will continue to favor these areas throughout the forecast period. Additionally, AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence remains in effect below 7000 feet over and immediately south through west of all mountains. This AIRMET is likely to continue through the day on Saturday with breezy to locally strong trade winds remaining in place. Finally, a weak jet lifting across the western and central portions of the state this evening and tonight may result in moderate upper level turbulence as well, though confidence remains low at this time.

Marine

High pressure strengthening to the north will bring a slight uptick in wind speeds on Saturday. Widespread strong trade winds with near gales at the windier channels are expected on Saturday. These winds combined with rough seas hovering at or near the 10 ft advisory level supports the Small Craft Advisory continuing for all waters through Saturday. The advisory may be scaled back to the typical windier waters by Sunday through early next week.
Surf along south facing shores will continue to ease overnight with surf heights dropping to near the summer average (5 feet) on Saturday. No significant sources are expected from the south during the next week due to a large high pressure area setting up near our swell window around New Zealand.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through next week due to the strong trades in place locally and upstream of the islands.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will continue to fade overnight as a late-season northwest swell moves out. A tiny reinforcement from the north is possible late Saturday into Sunday especially across the eastern end of the state as bulk of the swell energy misses us to our east. Expect the summer- like trend up north to return next week with only background swells from the northwest.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov