Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy with occasional showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 62 to 68 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kona

Today: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 50 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then cloudy with occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 83. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then cloudy with occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 83. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy with occasional showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 62 to 68 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 87 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A breezy and wet trade wind weather will continue the next couple of days, with a few brief heavy downpours, and possibly a thunderstorm, today. Showers will be focused over windward areas, but a few will occasionally drift to leeward areas. Thickening high clouds are expected statewide from tonight through Friday. A trend toward lighter trade winds, with fewer clouds and showers, is anticipated over the weekend.

Discussion

A wet trade wind weather pattern will remain in place the next couple of days, as a nearby low aloft continues to destabilize the island atmosphere. Showers will primarily soak windward areas, but breezy to locally strong trade winds will allow a few showers to drift over leeward communities on the smaller islands. Daytime heating of the Big Island's leeward slopes will help to fuel fairly widespread afternoon showers, and possibly a thunderstorm today.
A ridge of high pressure well N of the islands will support breezy to locally strong trade winds into the weekend. A front approaching from the NW over the weekend will force the ridge southward, leading to some weakening of the winds, while also veering them to the ESE on Sunday. Light to moderate easterly trade winds are then expected to continue into early next week, favoring a SE direction over the Kauai end of the chain.
A closed low aloft now centered just WSW of Kauai has been moving toward the SW at 20 mph over the past 12 hours, and has been sparking scattered thunderstorms, mainly over Offshore waters S and W of the islands. Layered high clouds have diminished somewhat over the area, but low-level moisture remains sufficiently deep to bring moisture to the Big Island Summits, where temperatures are below freezing, leading to a wintry mix of precipitation. An ongoing Winter Weather Advisory has been extended through today.
As the low aloft wobbles around to the W of the islands the next couple of days, strong divergence aloft to the E of the center will lead to widespread mid- and high-clouds moving over the islands tonight through Friday. The divergence aloft may be able to trigger some briefly heavy showers, and maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two, but it is not expected to lead to widespread destabilization. However, moderate instability will ensure that the trade winds deliver frequent passing showers to windward areas, while a few showers drift leeward.
As the deep-layer trough aloft weakens and moves NE on Saturday, layered high clouds will diminish, and the island atmosphere will gradually stabilize. A mid-level ridge will build over the area from the SW, and PWAT will trend toward normal, so just a few trade wind showers are expected.

Aviation

Breezy and wet trade wind conditions will continue through the 24-hr period, with the best shower coverage remaining over windward and mauka locations. Some showers will be heavy and a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out as an upper disturbance lingers in the area. IFR conditions are expected in and around the heavier showers.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will remain in effect for most windward zones.
AIRMET Tango for lee turbulence below 12000 FT will remain in effect for the entire area.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will continue to produce rather strong trade winds across the area over the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters through this afternoon. The combination of strong trades and large northwest and south swells may keep SCA conditions in place across many areas into Thursday. In addition, an upper low over the area has destabilized the local airmass, producing isolated thunderstorms. This low will slowly move west and then lift away allowing for more stability over the weekend.
The current long period northwest swell will hold today, then slowly subside tonight through the end of the week. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is currently in effect for exposed north and west shores.
The current long period south swell will linger through Thursday then slowly lower through rest of the week. A High Surf Advisory is currently in effect for all south facing shores. Also, a Marine Weather Statement has been issued for the potential for waves breaking in harbor entrances and well as the potential for some harbor surges.
Trade winds over and upwind of the state will continue to produce above normal, short-period surf along east facing shores through Friday then lower slightly over the weekend as trade winds become a bit lighter.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for south facing shores of all islands.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai and for north facing shores of Maui.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov