Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Sunday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Sunday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north up to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 50 to 55 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Expect breezy trade wind conditions to continue into next week as high pressure persists to our north. Cloud cover and scattered showers will favor windward and mountain areas. Trades may decrease around the middle of next week as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge.
Discussion
There is little to no change in forecast philosophy since last evening. Strong high pressure far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands has an associated ridge extending to the west northwest. The pressure gradient between this ridge and equatorial low pressure remains sufficiently steep to drive breezy trade winds across the islands this morning. Cloud cover increased a bit over the past 12 hours, with broken to overcast low clouds covering all windward and significant portions of mountain areas, especially on Kauai and Oahu. Radar shows isolated to scattered showers within this cloud cover. Overnight soundings featured a strong inversion near 6500 feet, likely working to cap convective cloud tops and limiting rainfall.
High pressure northeast of the state will continue to drive moderate to locally strong trade winds for the next several days, with little variation in speed. Otherwise, scattered light showers will mainly affect windward and mountain areas of the islands through at least the first half of next week. Models show the potential for a decrease in trade winds around the middle of next week due to a surface trough moving eastward north of the state. However, models differ somewhat heading into the latter half of the week. GFS keeps weak troughing to the north due to a strong low near the Gulf of Alaska, while ECMWF has high pressure building back in and a weaker trough to the north. Therefore, the ECMWF solution has stronger winds across Hawaiian waters than the GFS solution. Blending the two solutions, the gridded database continues to depict slightly weaker trades across the area after midweek next week.
Aviation
High pressure remains anchored northeast of the state resulting in breezy to locally strong tradewinds. AIRMET TANGO for moderate low- level turbulence will remain posted for the foreseeable future.
Isolated showers will impact mainly windward and mauka areas, with occasional MVFR conditions possible under passing showers. Lower clouds should remain patchy enough so don't think an AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration is necessary, but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, conditions should remain predominately VFR.
The last bit of lingering mid and high level clouds over the eastern half of the state continue to move northeast early this morning and should clear the area by this afternoon. Will keep AIRMET ZULU posted for light icing, but expect conditions to improve through the morning hours.
Marine
Locally strong trade winds will likely prevail into early next week due to surface high pressure far north and northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the gusty trades over the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday afternoon. Based on the latest forecast, this SCA will likely need to be extended into early next week for these same marine zones. A surface low moving to a position far north-northwest of the state around mid-week may cause the trade winds to weaken by Wednesday.
Forerunners from a long-period northwest swell from an azimuth of 330 to 340 degrees have arrived at the National Data Buoy Center buoys northwest of Kauai. This swell will spread across the area through this evening, and will likely peak later tonight or Sunday morning. Surf produced by this swell is expected to reach the High Surf Advisory criteria along most north facing shores of the smaller islands during the peak of the swell. The north- northwest swell will gradually lower from late Sunday through early next week. Small north-northwest and northwest swells during the middle of next week are expected to keep small surf along exposed north and west facing shores from Wednesday through Friday.
A moderate, long period south swell arriving today is expected to cause surf to gradually increase slightly above the seasonal average along most south facing shores this weekend. This south swell will gradually lower early next week.
The locally strong trade winds in the vicinity of, and upstream of the islands will continue to maintain moderate, choppy surf along most east facing shores. Therefore, expect surf to remain near the seasonal average along east facing shores into early next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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