Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Friday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then mostly sunny late in the morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 45 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to 51 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 62 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to 51 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 62 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Friday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to 46 to 54 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 63 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through Friday, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Trades will become strong and gusty over the weekend as high pressure builds north of the state. Increasing moisture and diminishing trade winds could lead to better shower coverage early next week as an upper disturbance moves into the area.

Discussion

Water vapor imagery showed the upper trough that led to a few storms over the eastern end of the state yesterday afternoon shifting eastward and away from the area early this morning. Rising upper heights and drier conditions will result in a more stable pattern statewide through the weekend. Showers will favor the typical windward and mountain locations overnight through the morning periods as pockets of moisture move through, leaving leeward areas mostly dry. Easterly trades will be breezy through Friday, then strong over the weekend as 1034 mb high pressure sets up north of the state. These strong winds may result in the Wind Advisory threshold being reached/exceeded Saturday (peak of the event) for the windier locations in Maui County and on the Big Island.
Trade winds will ease early next week as the ridge weakens in response to a cold front passing far to the north. Another upper level trough moving into the area could tap into some moisture lurking to the south. If this materializes, expect increasing rainfall chances where the moisture becomes focused.

Aviation

Showers remain scattered across the state this morning, mainly focused along windward areas and in between islands in convergent moist trade wind flow. Easterly trade winds will continue to strengthen and become breezy across the state through tonight as high pressure anchors in north of the islands. This trade wind pattern will focus showers and clouds along north through east windward slopes, while afternoon sea breeze clouds and showers are possible over sheltered leeward areas of the Big Island once again this afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with brief periods of MVFR cigs and potential MVFR vsby possible in passing showers.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect. However, MVFR cigs and potential MVFR vsby in locally hvy showers will occasionally generate a period of tempo mountain obscuration through tonight.

Marine

Trade winds will become fresh to strong today as strong high pressure builds north of the area. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the typical windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds will peak near gale force around Maui County and the Big Island this weekend as the high moves eastward and stalls north of the state. Seas will respond and become rough, with the likely expansion of the SCA to all coastal waters for winds and/or seas this weekend.
Surf along north and west facing shores will slowly trend down into tonight as a north northwest swell declines. A new long- period, northwest swell associated with a large batch of gales far northwest of the islands will begin to build down the island chain early Friday morning. This swell is expected to peak Friday night into Saturday, with surf heights likely reaching advisory levels for exposed north and west facing shores, before easing into early next week.
Surf along east facing shores will trend up late today and become rough Friday through the weekend as the trades increase. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend with mainly background pulses.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov