Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 50 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 50 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs around 85 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 45 to 53 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy trades will continue through Saturday, before easing considerably by Sunday. A band of showery low clouds will slide southeastward down the island chain today through Saturday, with drier conditions expected Saturday night through Monday. Winds will weaken giving rise to a hybrid trade wind and sea breeze pattern early next week, with showers favoring windward areas at night and interior and leeward areas during the afternoon and early evening hours. Increasing trades and wetter than normal conditions could return by the middle of next week.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 1000 miles northwest of Kauai, and is driving breezy to locally windy trades across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions over Kauai and Oahu, as well as windward sections of Molokai, Maui and Big Island. Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies prevail. Radar imagery shows numerous showers moving into Kauai and Oahu, with the showers regularly spreading into leeward areas. A few isolated showers are affecting windward section of Molokai, Maui and the Big Island, with rain free conditions in leeward ares. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances the next couple days.
High pressure northwest of the state will remain nearly stationary today, then gradually weaken as it slides east- northeastward well to the north of the islands over the weekend. Breezy trades will continue through Saturday, although a slight downward trend is expected by Saturday. The gradient will weaken considerably by Sunday as a front sags southward and stalls out just north of the islands. The trades may even be light enough to allow for localized sea breezes in leeward areas Sunday afternoon. The hybrid light to moderate trade and land/sea breeze pattern will then continue Sunday night through Tuesday. A pair of high pressure systems building northwest and northeast of the islands should strengthen the trades back to moderate levels Wednesday, with breezy to windy trades returning Thursday through late next week.
As for the remaining weather details, a band of low clouds and showers associated with the remnants of an old front will continue to slide southeastward down the island chain today through Saturday evening. Showery conditions will continue on Kauai early this morning, with improving conditions expected by early afternoon. On Oahu, showery conditions will make for a wet commute in many areas this morning, with some improvement expected this afternoon. For Maui County, the band of showery low clouds should gradually move in later today and continue through the night before improving early Saturday. Meanwhile, the Big Island will likely see the shower band move in late tonight or early Saturday, with improving conditions expected Saturday night.
Drier conditions should settle into most areas Saturday night and Sunday, although some moisture associated with a stalling out front may work southward into Kauai. Relatively dry conditions will then continue through Monday, with a few showers affecting windward areas at night and interior and leeward during the afternoon. Upper level energy moving over the state may increase shower activity Tuesday, with some deeper moisture and convergence associated with the returning trades resulting in a wetter than normal trade wind pattern Wednesday and Thursday, particularly over the eastern end of the state.
Aviation
A ragged band of showery low clouds persists across Kauai and also across Oahu as of this morning. AIRMET Sierra is now in effect for tempo mountain obscuration across windward Kauai and Oahu, with the AIRMET likely continuing through the morning. These low clouds will spread to Maui County and the Big Island later today. Windward areas will see occasional showers and lowering ceilings, reducing visibility at times. Strong trade winds may push these conditions leeward from time to time.
With the strong winds, AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence over leeward areas of all islands is in effect and will at least go through today.
Marine
A surface high pressure system centered far northwest of the islands will continue to maintain strong trade winds across the island chain today. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all Hawaiian waters through this afternoon. The trade winds are forecast to weaken slightly by this evening, but will likely continue to produce SCA conditions over the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island into Saturday. In addition to the strong winds, moisture associated with the remnants of an old frontal boundary will allow for an uptick in low clouds and trade showers across some areas, especially the windward waters, through early Saturday.
The surface high will weaken this weekend as it moves by far to the north of the state, and it will be far northeast of the area early next week. This will likely cause a significant weakening of the trade winds from late Saturday and Sunday through Monday.
The current north swell, which has a wave period around 10 seconds, will gradually lower through tonight. In the meantime, this swell combined with the strong trade winds will continue to produce modest, disorganized surf along most north facing shores. Expect a combination of small, short-period north and northwest swells to maintain small surf along most north and west facing shores this weekend. A larger, longer-period northwest swell may arrive on Tuesday, and potentially cause surf heights to approach the High Surf Advisory criteria along some north and west facing shores.
The strong trades will keep slightly elevated, rough surf along east facing shores today. Expect the surf to gradually lower along east facing shores from this weekend into early next week as the trade winds weaken. The current small south swell will persist today, and then will gradually lower this weekend.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
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