Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 46 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 62 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 62 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 47 to 53 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle to moderate east to southeast trade winds will strengthen this afternoon and veer toward the east. Moisture moving in from the southeast will bring scattered showers across the state today with a drier trade wind pattern returning on Thursday. Trades will likely weaken on Sunday as a cold front approaches the state. This front could bring gusty northerly winds and showery weather during the first half of next week.

Discussion

Gentle to moderate east to east southeast breezes will gradually strengthen and veer back easterly this afternoon into Thursday as the front north of the state weakens and broad high pressure takes over the east Pacific.
Overnight, we did see some moderate rain showers impacting windward areas of the Big Island, Maui and Oahu. For today, we should see the moisture continue to spread toward the western end of the island chain with showers on the increase over Kauai and Oahu. Afternoon sea breezes will develop over select areas and will lead to afternoon showers over interior and leeward areas. Showers are expected to continue over windward Big Island and Maui today with a decrease in showers expected tonight into Thursday as a drier airmass moves in from the east. A drier than normal trade wind pattern is expected Thursday through Saturday, with some light passing showers over windward and mountain areas.
In the extended forecast, an approaching front will disrupt the trade winds Sunday into Monday. Although confidence remains low being this far out in time, we could see the front pass through the state with gusty northerly winds behind the front and showery conditions around Tuesday of next week. More details will follow as the week progresses and confidence increases.

Aviation

Strengthening easterly trade winds will expand westward across the islands through this afternoon, as a ridge of high pressure lingers northeast of the state. Weaker wind patterns across sheltered zones will continue the potential for diurnal circulations through tonight, with sea breeze development expected this afternoon generating clouds and isolated showers inland across most leeward zones. VFR conditions are expected at most locations throughout the forecast period, however periods of MVFR cigs continue within showers across mainly eastern portions of the state and Big Island.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for eastern portions of state, especially sections of Big Island. Tempo mountain obscuration conditions may expand westward this afternoon in increasing moist trade wind flow.

Marine

Light to moderate east to southeast winds will transition to moderate to locally breezy trade winds today as a ridge of high pressure moves farther north of the state. With this change, a Small Craft Advisory will take effect by midday for the typically windy coastal zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds may weaken over the weekend and again veer southeast as a front approaches from the northwest.
The current northwest swell will only marginally decline and veer toward the north-northwest over the next day or two. A series of smaller northwest swells are expected Thursday through Saturday, with surf peaking below advisory levels. A larger northwest swell is possible early next week, with forerunners as early as Monday, that could raise surf to advisory levels along north and west facing shores through mid-week.
Surf along south facing shores is forecast to remain small, with only small background swells through the week. A small south swell is possible towards the middle of next week. East facing shores will have small, choppy surf through the week due to the local trades.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov