Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to 45 to 53 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Rather dry conditions and light winds will persist through the weekend, with limited rainfall favoring windward terrain. An upper level disturbance will pass over the state Monday through Wednesday, bringing a slight increase in shower activity, and potentially popping a thunderstorm or two each afternoon over the Big Island. Light and variable winds will persist Monday, before being replaced by moderate trade winds Monday night and Tuesday. Drier more stable conditions will build back over the islands beginning Wednesday and continuing into next weekend, with moderate trades prevailing.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1018 mb high is centered around 500 miles northeast of Honolulu, while a cold front is positioned around 550 miles northwest of Kauai. These features are producing light trade winds early this morning, with land breezes present in many areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, with mostly cloudy conditions over windward Big Island. Radar imagery shows a few light showers over windward Big Island, with rain free conditions over the remainder of the state. Main focus during the next few days revolves around rain chances, wind trends and the potential for thunder through the first half of the work week.
High pressure will build eastward and further away from the islands through Monday, while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will be losing steam as it nears Kauai late Monday, and may move into the northwestern islands Monday night and Tuesday before washing out. A new high will build in behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday, with ridging holding in place a few hundred miles north of the islands into next weekend. A light wind regime is expected across the state through Monday, with overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes common in most areas. Moderate north to northeast winds will return Monday night and Tuesday, shift around to more of a typical easterly trade wind direction Wednesday, then potentially become breezy Thursday into next weekend.
As for the remaining details, rather dry weather is expected to persist through tonight, with precipitable water values holding around an inch or less. Limited shower activity will be confined primarily to windward slopes and coasts with most leeward areas not seeing any rain at all. An energetic upper level trough will move over the islands early in the work week, with 500 mb temps dropping down to around -14 to -16C as a couple shortwave impulses dive southeastward through the islands. There will be a subtle increase in moisture associated with the front approaching and moving southward into the islands, but precipitable water values remain unimpressive holding around or slightly above 1 inch. All these elements point to a slight increase in rain chances Monday and Tuesday, with perhaps a few brief heavy showers each afternoon. Given the instability aloft however, a thunderstorm or two is not out of the question over the Big Island even with very low PW values, and have included a mention of thunder each afternoon Monday through Wednesday. Drier and more stable conditions will build back over the islands beginning Wednesday and continuing through late next week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas.
Aviation
Periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible over the windward and southeast sections of the Big Island this morning. Elsewhere, mostly dry and stable pattern will support VFR conditions through the 24-hr TAF cycle. Winds will remain light with early morning land breezes and daytime sea breezes.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect over the windward and southeast sections of the Big Island.
Marine
A low pressure system and cold front passing through the Central Pacific basin this week will continue to keep the surface ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands in a weakened state. Light to locally moderate background trade winds will show more directional variability and remain well below Small Craft Advisory strength through Friday. The cold front will weaken over the northwestern waters on Monday and diminish by Tuesday with increasing shower trends along the frontal boundary.
The current northwest swell will slowly decline today and tonight, while a moderate. Another northwest swell will arrive late Monday, peak on Tuesday, and elevate north shore surf to just below the High Surf Advisory levels. This next northwest swell will slowly decline from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Mainly background south swells are expected through Tuesday, with a slightly larger and longer period south swell possible from Thursday into Friday. Surf heights along east facing shores will remain on the small side through the week.
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