Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Sunday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 78 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 78 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Sunday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds will continue through the weekend, along with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

No changes to the forecast this morning. High pressure ridge to the northwest will push in, as a surface trough lingers to the east. An upper level trough overhead will have minimal impact on the weather immediately over the islands and coastal waters.
Satellite derived precipitable water (PW) reflects what the soundings from Lihue and Hilo report with the overnight launches. A drier airmass over the western end of the state and a slightly more moist airmass near the Big Island. Even drier air is to the northwest of Kauai, so expecting even more limited moisture as we head into the new week.
The upper level trough will linger in the area, however with a drier airmass moving in, limited shower activity is expected. Most of the instability associated with the upper trough will remain to the east of the islands.
Look for trade winds to increase some during the middle to latter part of the new week as a ridge becomes established north of the islands. A mid level ridge pushing over the islands at the same time will continue to limit rainfall totals.

Aviation

Radar and satellite trends show bands of low lvl clouds and showers organizing within east/northeast trades this morning. This pattern will continue to concentrate a majority of clouds and showers across windward areas of the islands through tonight. Otherwise, satellite data shows an upper level cloud deck lingering just east of the islands, as an upper trough continues to slowly push away from the state. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period, however periodic MVFR to isolated IFR conditions are possible within any heavier showers.
The AIRMET which has been in effect for central and eastern portions of the state for moderate turb, is expected to continue to lessen this morning as turbulent conditions diminish.
Also, potential AIRMET Sierra for MTN TEMPO OBSC remains a possibility through today, as trade wind moisture potentially reduces vsby and cigs along windward zones.

Marine

A surface trough will weaken near Maui this morning keeping trade wind speeds weaker then normal. A high pressure system far north of the region will continue to produce light to moderate trade winds across the region through Tuesday. Expect increasing trade winds from Wednesday onward into the breezy range as a high pressure system passes by just north of the Hawaiian Islands.
A moderate northwest swell has reached the Hanalei Buoy in Kauai this morning and surf heights will trend higher as the swell builds through the afternoon along exposed north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai. This northwest swell decreases on Sunday, as a small overlapping north swell with a wave period of around 10 seconds arrives, producing a slight boost in surf heights along north facing shores before slowly fading into early next week. The next moderate period swell will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday with increasing surf height trends along exposed north and west facing shores. Long range guidance shows a larger and long period west-northwest swell possibly arriving by Thursday night or Friday. Stay tuned.
Surf heights along east facing shores will slowly decrease and hold at moderate levels into the weekend. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov