Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Puna
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Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 44 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A series of fronts will approach and stall northwest of the islands, causing trade wind speeds to fluctuate at light to moderate levels through the work week, while keeping any significant rainfall away from the Aloha state. Showers will favor windward slopes and coasts, particularly during nights and mornings. A more typical showery trade wind pattern could return over the weekend, with trades expected to strengthen to breezy levels by Sunday.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a front is located around 300 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1035 mb high is centered around 1800 miles north-northeast of Honolulu. A ridge axis extends southwestward from the high to a position very near Kauai, which is producing land breezes over the Garden Isle. Meanwhile, light to moderate trade winds prevail over the remainder of the island chain, although land breezes have developed in the more sheltered leeward areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy conditions in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover noted primarily windward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with very little shower activity noted in leeward areas. Main short term focus remains on small deviations in trade wind strength and rain chances through the week.
The front northwest of the state will push southeastward and closer to the island chain this morning, then stall out 150-200 miles northwest of Kauai by late this afternoon. This will lead to a decrease in trade winds through the morning hours, with sea breezes developing in many areas this afternoon. The front will dissipate tonight and Tuesday as a weak high builds north of the state, with trade winds expected to return to moderate strength by Tuesday afternoon. A series of fronts will then approach and stall out northwest of the islands through the end of the work week, bringing small fluctuations in trade wind strength. Light to moderate trades will prevail during this time, but the winds will likely be light enough to allow for some localized sea breeze development in some of the more sheltered areas Wednesday and Friday. The surface ridge will lift further north this weekend, allowing the trade winds to strengthen, possibly to breezy levels by Sunday.
As for the remaining weather details, the airmass over the islands will moisten up slightly today, while a disturbance aloft slides southeastward across the state. This will likely bring a few more light trade wind showers to windward areas this morning, and possibly trigger a few more light showers across the island interiors this afternoon. Drier than normal weather is then expected to continue through the remainder of the work week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings. A return to a more normal showery trade wind pattern appears to set up this weekend.
Aviation
A weak cold front will approach and stall out just northwest of the islands today, keeping light background east to southeast winds in the forecast with land and sea breezes developing over each island. A weak high pressure system will pass just north of the region on Tuesday, bringing a return of moderate trade winds. Scattered clouds and isolated showers will develop over island interior sections this afternoon due to converging sea breeze winds and surface heating. Clouds will clear out later this evening due to stable land breezes.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect. However, a potential for moderate turbulence remains near the islands after 18Z today.
Marine
The ridge has shifted southward into the area, which has resulted in the low-level flow veering out of the southeast and weakening. High pressure will quickly build north of the area tonight through Tuesday in the wake of a passing front, which will support a return of moderate to fresh easterly trades Tuesday through midweek. Light winds will be possible once again through the second half of the week as a weak surface trough moves in from the east and another front passes to the north. Thereafter, fresh to strong easterly trades are anticipated beginning Saturday.
Surf along north facing shores will hold steady (similar to Sunday afternoon) today, then trend up tonight through Tuesday as a new, west-northwest (310 deg) swell associated with a compact storm- force low centered around 1000 nm away from the islands to the northwest arrives and builds down the island chain. Guidance shows this source peaking early Tuesday, then slowly easing through midweek. If the swell fills in and surges higher than predicted, surf will near warning levels Tuesday. A reinforcement expected Thursday night into Friday from the same direction will support near advisory-level surf. The next in the series expected Friday night into Saturday will likely hit the advisory mark through the day Saturday, then lower through the second half of the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain below average through Tuesday, then trend up Wednesday through the second half of the week. Guidance shows a decent gradient setting up around 600 NM east-northeast of the Big Island today through Tuesday. This combined with moderate trades returning support this upward trend.
Surf along south facing shores will hold today before moving out due to a small, out of season, south-southwest swell that is moving through. A gale low passing southeast of New Zealand over weekend may lead to another small, south-southwest swell arriving toward the end of the week.
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