Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 44 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A series of fronts approaching and stalling out northwest of the islands will bring fluctuating trade winds for much of the week. Light to moderate trades should generally prevail, although the trades are forecast to ease up enough to allow for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes in many areas Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Fairly dry weather will continue through the work week, with showers favoring mainly windward slopes and coasts, particularly during nights and mornings. A more typical showery trade wind pattern may return next weekend, with trades strengthening to moderate and locally breezy levels.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a pair of fronts are located well to the west and northwest of Kauai, while a 1030 mb high is centered around 1500 miles north-northeast of Honolulu. A ridge axis extends southwestward from the high to a position just north of Kauai. The resulting gradient is producing moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas. Radar imagery shows a few light showers moving into windward sections of Maui and the Big Island, with dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term focus revolves around the trade wind trends during the next several days.
The pair of fronts northwest of the state will merge northwest of the islands today, then move southeastward and closer to the islands tonight before stalling out around 150-200 miles northwest of Kauai on Monday. Moderate trades are expected statewide today, although they'll likely tip a bit southeasterly over the western islands this afternoon. The trades will ease tonight, with a period of light and variable winds expected Monday and Monday night, allowing for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes in most areas. A very progressive pattern over the central Pacific will keep the trade winds fluctuating through the remainder of the work week, with moderate trades expected Tuesday and Thursday, with lighter trades forecast Wednesday and Friday, particularly over the western islands. Moderate to breezy trades may return next weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, dry and stable conditions will keep showers sparse and confined to mainly windward slopes and coasts today. The airmass moistens up ever so slightly over the eastern end of the state tonight, which will likely bring an increase in trade wind showers. A disturbance aloft will slide southeast through the area on Monday, which could bring a few more showers to interior and mauka areas, but coverage is still expected to be minimal. Drier than normal weather is then expected to continue through the remainder of the work week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings. A return to a more normal showery trade wind pattern could return next weekend.
Aviation
Early this morning, surface high pressure is located far northeast of the state with an associated surface ridge extending just north of Kauai. This will keep E/ESE trade winds light to moderate for the next several days while a series of fronts approach the island chain but then stall northwest of the state. Moisture is expected to remain rather limited throughout the forecast period, with mostly dry VFR conditions prevailing at most locations. Limited shower activity will be confined to east- facing slopes and coasts with only brief MVFR ceilings possible in any showers that do develop across windward locations.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, and none are anticipated today or tonight.
Marine
Moderate to fresh trade winds will ease and shift southeasterly over most waters today as surface high pressure north of the state moves to the northeast and its associated ridge moves toward the islands. An approaching front will push the ridge near Kauai Monday as a front dissipates just north of the state, leading to gentle winds over most of the coastal waters. A surface high passing to the north may bring another episode of trade winds mid-week, before a ridge is once again pushed near the islands for period of light winds.
The current northwest swell which peaked yesterday has continued to lower. Surf is now below advisory level along north facing shores, so the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled. The swell will continue a slow decline through Monday. A similarly-sized northwest swell will arrive Tuesday, followed by another Friday, both likely producing advisory level surf for north, and potentially west, facing shores.
A small south-southwest swell will drop later today, with minimal south shore surf by Tuesday. East shore surf will remain below the seasonal normal, though a slight increase is possible during the middle of the week with the boost in trades.
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