Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 62 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 62 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to 44 to 52 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Expect winds to increase a bit today as high pressure builds north of the state. Winds will further increase to moderate strength this weekend and push an area moisture over windward slopes, followed by brief drying late Sunday into Monday. Another increase in trade wind showers is possible late Monday and Tuesday.
Discussion
A ridge near Kauai will keep winds light this morning. Expect overnight land breezes to give way to daytime sea breezes by this afternoon, especially across the western islands, as light trade winds begin to spread westward. Cloud and shower coverage will increase across mauka areas with sea breeze development, followed by clearing at night. Models show surface high pressure will build north of the state while a front stalls and begins to dissipate just north of Kauai. Conditions will be rather dry at first, but moisture from the dissipating front may affect windward Kauai and Oahu beginning tonight.
Trade winds will continue to increase to moderate strength on Saturday as high pressure holds north of the state. Winds will shift out of the northeast on Sunday as a weak surface low approaches from the east. Moisture from the dissipated front should clear out, leading to a decrease in showers over all islands Sunday afternoon. An upper low dropping southward to the east of the state will produce increased north winds on the high summits of the Big Island.
Expect trade winds to remain in place through next week, possibly becoming breezy and gusty by Wednesday. The surface low will fall apart, but its remaining moisture will fuel windward rainfall for parts of the state late Monday and Tuesday, especially for the Big Island and Maui. Expect a boost in trade winds mid week as a reinforcing area of high pressure passes north of the state.
Aviation
A cold front approaching the islands from the northwest will keep a high pressure ridge in place over state. The stability under this ridge will limit shower activity today. Light large scale winds will allow local scale land breezes to continue this morning. Winds will begin to transition back to trade winds today with sea breezes lingering over terrain sheltered western slopes of each island. Isolated showers remain in the forecast mainly along convergence bands between the returning trade winds and the afternoon sea breezes.
No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are anticipated.
Marine
Light and variable winds will hold today over the western end of the state, while a return of moderate to fresh trades is anticipated over the eastern end. Trades are expected to fill in statewide tonight through the weekend, potentially reaching the strong category over the typically windier locations around Maui County and the Big Island, as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of a passing front. Trades may shift to a more northeast direction early next week as the islands become positioned between low pressure passing to the southeast and the ridge to the north.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will trend up through the day today as a new, west-northwest swell builds down the island chain. Offshore buoy observations (51101/51001) quickly ramped up overnight (mostly in line with predicted levels). This swell has already reached the Hanalei buoy and should begin showing at the Waimea buoy (it's back in action – thanks to the PacIOOS folks) through the morning hours, beginning around or by sunrise. Guidance depicts the surf peaking tonight through Saturday above warning levels (XL category) followed by a gradual downward trend through the second half of the weekend. The warning has been issued for exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands and will need to be expanded to include the leeward section of the Big Island in the afternoon package today. Small Craft Advisory has been issued over western end of the state to account for the seas expected to reach the 10 ft threshold today, and will also need to be expanded down the island chain later today.
Although a downward trend is expected through the second half of the weekend, another long-period, west-northwest pulse arriving by Sunday night will support a return of advisory-level (if it dips below Sunday) surf Monday. Heights should then dip below advisory levels for north and west facing shores Tuesday through the second half of next week.
Surf along east facing shores may trend up over the weekend in response to a tight gradient that has setup between low pressure centered more than 1000 miles east of Hilo and high pressure to its north. Recent ASCAT data showed a packet of strong- to gale-force winds focused at the state north of the low. Guidance has this easterly swell arriving by Saturday night, then lingering into early next week before easing.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters.
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