Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 62 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 62 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66 near the shore to 44 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A cold front approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the northwest will continue to weaken the high pressure ridge over the state today keeping variable sea breezes over most islands. The position of the ridge remains directly over the islands keeping fairly stable conditions for most areas today. Light large scale east to southeasterly winds will allow local scale sea breezes to build clouds and produce a few showers over island mountain and interior sections today. Trade winds will return on Friday as high pressure strengthens behind a dissipating cold front. Cloud and shower bands associated with the frontal remnants will drift over the islands, from northwest to southeast, on Friday and Saturday. A low level trough may pass through the region on Tuesday boosting trade wind shower activity through Wednesday.
Discussion
The satellite imagery this morning shows a cold front approaching the islands from the northwest and a series of upper level lows far northeast to east of the state. A weak low level trough is drifting into the eastern half of the state this morning with slight increases to clouds over south and east Big Island, and east Maui. Local radar imagery shows low level southeasterly winds are lifting clouds up the mountain slopes and enhancing showers along the east and southeast slopes of the Big Island. Elsewhere, stable land breezes are keeping weather conditions mostly clear. A few cirrus clouds continue to drift into the region from the northwest direction ahead of the approaching cold front.
A cold front approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the northwest will continue to weaken the high pressure ridge over the state through Friday. The position of the ridge directly over the islands will keep fairly stable conditions in the forecast today for most locations. Light large scale east to southeasterly winds will allow local scale land and sea breezes to continue through the afternoon. Converging sea breeze winds and surface heating will build clouds over island interior sections through the day with a few showers possible in the afternoon as convergent winds and surface heating decreases, causing larger cumulus clouds to collapse and cloud droplets to fall as rain. The cold front will dissipate by Friday as it approaches the island chain. Remnant cloud bands and showers will drift into Kauai and Oahu by Friday night, with increasing shower coverage reaching Maui and Hawaii Counties on Saturday.
A surface high will build in behind the frontal remnants on Friday allowing trade winds to return to the region. An upper level low will pass from north to south, just east of the Big Island on Monday. Expect stronger upper level northerly winds affecting the mountain peaks of Haleakala on Maui, Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa on the Big Island as this upper low passes just east of the state. This upper low appears to kick out a low level trough, moving towards the islands on the trade wind flow. This trough will move into the state on Tuesday and Wednesday enhancing trade wind clouds and showers, favoring northeast windward slopes.
Aviation
Radar imagery shows light showers continuing to move into southeast portions of the Big Island early this morning. This activity is expected to diminish through the rest of the morning. Light winds will allow local land and sea breezes to develop today. Expect sea breezes to develop this afternoon, increasing cloud cover and triggering a few light showers over island interiors. This will give way to land breezes overnight, which will act to clear out the low clouds Expect brief MVFR conditions in showers, if any develop. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are expected through the forecast period.
Marine
A surface ridge over the area will continue to support light to locally moderate winds into tonight, favoring an E-SE direction near the Big Island, and SE-S near Kauai. A weakening front moving toward the area will cause the ridge to move S and weaken, resulting in a brief period of light and variable winds from tonight into Friday. A high pressure cell passing N of the area will then support moderate to locally fresh NE winds from Friday afternoon into early next week, potentially reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels over the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The passing high will also push fragments of the front over the area, leading to an increase in showers, mainly over windward waters Friday and Saturday.
The ongoing High Surf Advisory (HSA) for N and W facing shores was just cancelled, as available buoy observations indicate the swell is diminishing in height and period. This will only be a temporary lull however, as a powerful long-period WNW swell is expected to build Friday, peak Friday night/Saturday, then gradually diminish Sunday/Monday. A High Surf Warning (HSW) will likely be necessary for exposed N and W facing shores, including the W facing shores of the Big Island. After dropping below HSW- levels, continued wave energy from the WNW may require a HSA through early next week. The weekend's large WNW will bring combined seas over 10 feet, requiring a SCA for seas in most zones. Additionally, a small to moderate ENE swell is possible over the weekend, generated by a gale low E of the islands.
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