Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to 45 to 53 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
The light background winds with dry and stable atmospheric conditions will allow an afternoon sea breeze and nighttime land breeze weather pattern to persist through early Friday. Expect some cloud cover with a few showers over the islands each afternoon, followed by clearing skies at night. As we head into the weekend, it appears that a front moving down into the area late Friday may increase low cloud cover and showers along windward and mauka sections as northeasterly trade winds fill in across the area through this weekend. Drier trade wind weather is expected by early next week.
Discussion
A weak northeast to southwest oriented surface ridge is near the western end of the island chain. Elsewhere, the tail end of a dissipating frontal system appears to be about 340 miles north- northwest of Lihue early this morning. The close proximity of the surface ridge to the islands is producing light southeast to south winds over the western end of the state, with relatively weak east to southeast flow elsewhere. These gentle winds allowed local land breeze circulations to set up over each of the individual islands last evening. This cleared out most of the low cloud cover from Oahu to the Big Island overnight. However, an area of low clouds with some higher layered clouds has crept over Niihau and Kauai early this morning. There are also some showers embedded within some of these clouds.
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-tropospheric ridge over the islands. This ridge aloft along with dry atmospheric conditions will keep the stable weather pattern in place through early Friday. There is slightly higher low-level moisture near Kauai, but the other islands remain relatively dry. With the surface ridge staying close to the state, the light background flow will persist. This will allow alternating local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to become established over each of the individual islands. The sea breezes will produce some low clouds and a few showers each afternoon over the islands, followed by clearing skies at night.
The forecast guidance continues to show that a new cold front will approach the state from the northwest later this week. This front is forecast to reach Kauai Friday night. After that the guidance appears to indicate this feature may weaken rapidly as it moves from Oahu to Maui County on Saturday. A new surface high pressure system will build in behind the front, which will cause locally moderate northeasterly trade winds to fill in across the state this weekend. Expect low clouds and showers to increase ahead of and along the front as long as it remains a viable feature. Otherwise, the low-level trade wind flow will likely bring increasing low clouds and brief trade showers over windward facing sections of the state this weekend. Looking ahead, it appears that a drier trade wind weather regime will become established over most of the island chain by early next week.
Aviation
Light synoptic flow in the lower levels will allow local wind effects to drive the weather. Land breezes and inland clearing will give way to sea breeze development this afternoon. This will drive cloud buildup and a few light showers over island interiors. An increasingly stable air mass will limit most shower development, though brief MVFR conditions are possible if any develop. Otherwise, VFR will prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect, nor expected through the forecast period.
Marine
A surface ridge currently near Kauai and Oahu continues to support light to locally moderate winds, favoring an E-SE direction near the Big Island, and SE-S near Kauai. Little change is expected through Thursday, but weak convergence associated with a retreating front will support a few showers near Kauai today. A different front, approaching Thursday night and Friday, will cause the ridge to move S and weaken, resulting in light and variable winds. High pressure passing N of the area over the weekend will support moderate to locally fresh NE winds into early next week. The high will likely push fragments of the front over the area, leading to a brief increase in showers, mainly over windward waters Friday and Saturday.
Winds are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds through the forecast period, but combined seas larger than 10 feet late in the week will require its issuance for most zones. A building WNW swell will bring High Surf to exposed N and W shores as it peaks today, including W facing shores of the Big Island, and a High Surf Advisory is posted. This swell will gradually diminish tonight into Thursday. A powerful long-period WNW swell is expected to build Friday, peak Friday night/Saturday, then gradually diminish Sunday/Monday. A High Surf Warning will likely be necessary for exposed N and W facing shores, including the W facing shores of the Big Island. A moderate ENE swell is also possible over the weekend, generated by a developing gale- force low that will be about 1000-1300 miles E of the islands the next couple of days.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai, for north facing shores of Maui, and west facing shores of Big Island.
This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Big Island Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments
