Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to 50 to 55 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. West winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 45 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to 66 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to 66 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to 50 to 55 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. West winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 68 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to 46 to 52 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 69 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Light and variable winds and mostly dry weather will prevail for most of this week. A land and sea breeze regime will dominate, featuring mostly cool and clear nights and mornings, while afternoon and evening clouds will deliver just a few spotty showers. Light to moderate trade winds may return by next weekend.
Discussion
Light winds and mostly stable weather will prevail this week, as ridging at the surface and aloft persist over the area. Nighttime land breezes will lead to mostly clear and cool nights and mornings, while late morning sea breezes will persist through the early evening. Any rainfall that occurs will be most likely during the afternoon and evening hours as the converging sea breezes drive the formation of clouds over interior and upslope areas.
A surface ridge extending from a high to the distant NE will remain over and/or near the islands through the week. While there may be subtle day-to-day fluctuations in the position of the ridge that may modulate the low-level wind flow, light and variable winds are generally expected over most land areas. The light winds will favor a SE-S direction on the large scale, with light to moderate E-SE winds anticipated Wednesday as the ridge briefly drifts to a position just N of Kauai. The ridge may move sufficiently N to support a light to moderate trade wind flow near the Big Island, but island-scale sea/land breezes are still likely to override the trade flow.
A mid-level ridge extending over the islands from a high centered in the tropical W Pacific will prevail, keeping rainfall limited in area and intensity. The ridge may be briefly “dented” by a relatively weak short wave Tuesday night and Wednesday, which could allow afternoon sea breeze convection to gain a little vigor. A weak front approaching from the NW toward the end of the week is expected to have little in the way of support aloft as it potentially moves over the islands Friday and Saturday. High pressure passing N of the islands may bring light to moderate trade winds next weekend, with the remnant frontal moisture potentially fueling a few windward showers.
Aviation
The latest sfc obs, satellite and radar continue to show only isolated low/middle lvl clds and spotty showers in the vicinity of the state early this morning. High pressure ridge in place and weakly organized surface wind pattern, will continue to reinforce diurnal sea and land breeze circulations through the TAF period. This pattern will allow for sea breeze cloud and shower development for interior sections and along slopes again this afternoon, with timing and location of clouds and showers this afternoon similar to the past 24hrs. The transition to land breeze development during the evening will help diminish showers and clouds.
Overall, expect mainly VFR conditions to continue through tonight, however some MVFR cigs remain possible again this afternoon in heavier showers.
Currently no AIRMETs are in effect, or expected through tonight.
Marine
A weak surface ridge in the vicinity of Kauai is keeping relatively light winds across most of the island chain early this morning. A series of fronts moving down from the northwest will likely keep the surface ridge near the state this week, although the position of the ridge may oscillate slightly from day to day. The background flow near the western end of the island will remain light and variable through Friday. Expect light to moderate east to southeast winds to develop over some windward waters starting late Tuesday or Wednesday.
The current northwest swell continues to subside early this morning. The PaciOOs buoy at Hanalei near the north shore of Kauai shows the swell height is a foot or two above the guidance. However, the wave period has dropped below 12 seconds. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been cancelled for north and west facing shores of the islands this morning. There may still be some lingering larger sets around daybreak, but the surf should steadily drop through this evening. The forecast guidance continues to indicate the next reinforcing northwest swell will initially arrive early Tuesday, and then gradually build through Tuesday night before peaking early Wednesday. Surf produced by this swell is expected to reach the HSA criteria along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands late Tuesday and Wednesday. Note that this swell has a more westerly direction, so it may also produce surf near the HSA criteria along exposed west facing shores of the Big Island from Tuesday night through Wednesday. In addition, seas may eventually reach the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria of 10 feet on Wednesday over some of the coastal waters near Kauai.
The northwest swell will gradually lower Thursday before the initial forerunners from a much larger northwest swell are forecast to arrive early Friday morning. This swell is expected to rise rapidly, with resulting surf well above the High Surf Warning (HSW) thresholds along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands starting early Friday. A HSA will likely be required for west facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, with a HSW possible there starting Friday night. In addition, expect SCA conditions due to elevated seas over coastal waters exposed to this large northwest swell from Friday into next weekend.
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