Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 50 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 78 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to 49 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 78. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to 49 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 78. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 50 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 78 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68 near the shore to 46 to 54 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate to breezy trade winds will hold in place through the middle of the week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but the trades will send a few showers into leeward communities as well. Periods of high cloud cover will also move through the state during the next few days. Unsettled weather with moderate to locally heavy rainfall and considerable cloudiness could return to portions of the island chain Thursday into next weekend.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a cold front is located around 425 miles west of Kauai, while a strong 1037 mb high is centered around 1600 miles north of Honolulu. The high to the distant north remains the dominant feature locally, with the resulting gradient producing moderate trade winds in unsheltered areas early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover in some windward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a shower or two occasionally spilling over into leeward communities. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends.
The cold front to the west of the state will shift steadily eastward today, then stall out and weaken into a trough tonight before moving slowly southwestward Monday through the middle of the week. Meanwhile, strong high pressure to the distant north will remain nearly stationary during this time. Moderate trade winds are expected to prevail through tonight, before strengthening a notch to breezy levels late Monday through Wednesday. Winds may shift around to the southeast and eventually south at moderate speeds Thursday into next weekend as a low develops and lifts northward along the trough well west of the islands, while the high to the distant north-northeast of the state pushes steadily eastward.
As for the remaining weather details, we should see a fairly typical trade wind shower regime hold in place through the middle of the week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the morning hours. With moderate to breezy trades holding in place, showers will reach leeward communities at times as well. Meanwhile, with troughing aloft to the west of the state, scattered to broken high cloud will also stream over the islands during the next few days. The forecast details become more uncertain Thursday into next weekend, but overall with winds swinging around to the southeast and south, we should see some deeper moisture advect northward into the state from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This will increase the potential for moderate to locally heavy showers across the islands, along with bringing considerable cloud cover.
Aviation
Scattered showers are drifting into windward and mountain areas on the trade winds. Brief MVFR conditions remain possible over north through east slopes of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Shower activity will decrease in coverage a few hours after sunrise this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate clear air turbulence aloft between FL220 and FL320. Another area of moderate turbulence will affect areas over mountains and south through west of mountain ranges. These conditions will likely continue through the morning.
Marine
A well anchored 1037 mb surface high pressure system located far north of the islands will continue to supply the islands with fresh to locally strong trade winds through at least Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended to 6 pm HST Monday for the waters around Maui County and waters south of the Big Island. An expansion of this SCA to the windward waters of Kauai may occur about Monday night or Tuesday due to elevated seas of 10 feet or higher and from strengthening trade winds as well. Locally strong trade winds will then last through Wednesday before dropping off slightly into the moderate range Wednesday night.
Unsettled weather associated with a developing kona low today will cover the western offshore waters then spread to the waters south of the islands after Monday. These storms are likely to last through Wednesday.
A moderate north-northeast swell will be trending northeast in the next couple of days. An east swell from a developing gale low several hundred miles east of the Big Island is expected to arrive Tuesday and may briefly boost the surf along the east facing shores to near advisory level of 10 feet.
The largest of a series of long period west- northwest swells this coming week, is set to arrive tonight, and peak Monday. Surf from this initial pulse may come close to advisory level of 15 feet along the north and west facing shores of Kauai.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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