Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to 46 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 81. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to 52 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 81. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 81. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to 52 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 81. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to 65 to 70 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph increasing to 40 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
The kona low continues to drift westward away from the state today and returning trade winds are producing more stable conditions across the region. Moderate to breezy trade winds are forecast to last through Sunday with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain areas with drier conditions over leeward sections of each island. A weakening cold front appears to drift into the islands from the north early next week increasing shower trends and strengthening trade wind speeds.
Discussion
Satellite imagery shows improving weather conditions across the state this morning as a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to drift westward away from Kauai County. The Flood Watch for Kauai County was cancelled this morning due to improving weather trends. More stable conditions are shown on radar across the state with isolated to scattered showers moving into east and southeast slopes of all islands.
A high pressure ridge builds in north of the islands this week producing moderate to breezy trade winds across the region through Sunday. Returning trade winds will bring a shift to the cloud and shower pattern, favoring windward and mountain areas mainly in the overnight to early morning hours. Trade wind inversion heights into the weekend are fairly stable limiting shower activity for most areas.
Long range guidance shows a weakening cold front moving into the islands from the north with a brief period of increasing clouds and showers for all islands on Monday and Tuesday. A strengthening high pressure system will increase pressure gradients over the islands after the frontal boundary passes through the state. Stronger trade winds are forecast by Tuesday with wind speeds possibly reaching Wind Advisory thresholds by the middle of next week over more wind favored locations of each island.
Aviation
East-southeast trade winds are established over the islands while a band of deep moisture associated with a kona low lingers just west of Kauai. Heavy showers and thunderstorms in the band have remained over waters west of Kauai overnight, and all guidance shows the convection fading and drifting westward today as ridging aloft builds in from the east.
Expect moisture within the stable east-southeasterly trade wind flow to bring MVFR ceilings to most windward areas. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is posted for windward terrain of Maui and the Big Island and may need to be expanded to Oahu before sunrise. Expect MVFR ceilings to diminish by mid morning, while VFR dominates over leeward areas.
AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence west through northwest of mountains all islands due to building east to east- southeast trade winds. As ridging aloft strengthens today, the inversion will strengthen and drop the AIRMET down from the current 10,000 ft to about 7,000 to 8,000 ft.
Marine
The kona low roughly 700 nm northwest of Kauai is still producing light rain bands that are streaming across the local waters. Moderate to strong thunderstorms are moving north over the far southwestern offshore waters early this morning. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through tonight due to a combination of locally strong winds and resultant high seas. Winds may become gusty and strong within any passing moderate rain band or thunderstorm but, with high pressure filling from the northeast, strengthening trade winds will maintain an SCA for at least the eastern waters (along and east of the Kaiwi Channel) through Thursday afternoon. So, while regional winds are forecast to gradually weaken late Wednesday over the more western waters, moderate to fresh trades will occur over the typically windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island the next few days.
The ongoing north swell will continue to lower through the day. Surf along north and west facing shores will remain well below early winter averages with only a very small, medium period north northwest swell forecast to arrive late Thursday and Friday. A slightly larger, longer period north swell may arrive next Sunday or Monday. The recent small, lower period wind wave south swell has faded leaving only background long period swells. This will maintain near seasonal south facing shore surf the next several days. East facing shores will see a gradual pick up in short period chop as upstream trades strengthen and spread over the area the next few days.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maui County and Big Island waters, including the Kaiwi Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai and Oahu waters.
This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Big Island Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments
