Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 46 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 63 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 64 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 63 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 64 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 70 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to 46 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Mainly dry conditions and easing winds are expected during the next couple days as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will merge with a developing trough northeast of the state Saturday night, allowing trade winds to return and strengthen to moderate and locally breezy levels Sunday through Tuesday. Trade wind showers are expected to increase in coverage and intensity early next week, with unsettled conditions and light winds returning for the middle of next week.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1027 mb high is centered around 1800 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge axis extending southwestward to around 200 miles north of Kauai. Meanwhile, a cold front is located around 800 miles northwest of the Garden Isle. The resulting gradient is producing moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies across the state, with cloud coverage the highest over windward locales. Radar imagery shows a few light showers over windward and mauka areas of Kauai and Oahu, with dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends during the next couple days.
The front to the distant northwest will approach and pass by to the north of the islands during the next couple days, and this will suppress the high pressure ridge axis southward to a location near or just north of Kauai by daybreak Saturday. Moderate trade winds are expected to prevail today, before easing tonight. Land breezes are expected in many areas by late tonight, with sea breezes developing in the more sheltered areas on Saturday. The front will fizzle out and merge with a developing surface trough northeast of the state Saturday night and Sunday, while a new high builds north of the island chain. This should bring a return of light trade winds Saturday night, with the trades strengthening to moderate to locally breezy levels Sunday. The trough will slowly approach the state from the east early next week, with a high pressure ridge axis remaining nearly stationary north of the islands. This should keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place through Tuesday. The trades are forecast to become disrupted Tuesday night through Thursday as the surface trough moves over the state, with winds remaining light during this time across the entire island chain.
As for the remaining weather details, very dry conditions are expected through Saturday, with a few light showers limited to mainly windward and mauka areas. A slight increase in trade wind showers will be possible Saturday night and Sunday as the trades return, but the pattern is expected to remain much drier than normal. We should then see a gradual increase in trade wind shower coverage and intensity Sunday night through Tuesday as an upper level low and surface trough approach from the east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in forecast details for the middle to latter part of next week, but overall it looks unsettled with the potential for some heavier showers for both windward and leeward areas as the surface trough and upper level low remain in the vicinity of the islands.
Strong 600 mb winds are expected Sunday through Tuesday, and could result in advisory and potentially warning level winds over the Big Island summits.
Aviation
Moderate trade winds will persist today and allow for isolated showers mainly along the windward coasts and slopes. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may accompany this activity but not expecting anything widespread. Trade winds will weaken slightly tonight into Saturday.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
Marine
A ridge of high pressure north of the state will gradually shift closer to the state over the next day as a front passes over the northern offshore water late Saturday. This will cause the trade winds to decrease to light to moderate speeds by Saturday. Winds are expected to increase Sunday into early next week as a high builds north of the state. At the same time, a trough is developing east of the state and will cause the trade winds to be more northeasterly Sunday through Tuesday. Some unsettled weather is also possible as this trough begins to move toward the west Tuesday into the middle of next week.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for large seas through late this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory for the typical windy areas around Maui and the Big Island has been cancelled due to decreasing winds.
A reinforcing northwest swell has arrived and will likely peak this morning then steadily decline through Saturday. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for exposed north and west facing shores through this afternoon. Surf will likely decline to borderline advisory thresholds by this evening. A moderate northwest swell is expected to fill in Sunday, then gradually decline during the first half of next week. This swell could get near the advisory threshold along north facing shores. Minimal surf is expected along south facing shores. A slight increase is possible along east facing shores early next week due to a fetch of breezy trades over and upstream of the state.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
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