Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers late in the evening. Partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Light winds again today will bring the possibility for another round of thunderstorms to the Big Island during the afternoon and evening hours. The smaller islands will see some clouds and showers develop over the interior of the islands during the afternoon hours. A return to more typical trade wind weather is expected Thursday.
Discussion
Have made some modifications to the forecast, but no significant changes since the evening update. The weakening trough remains over the central islands this morning, with southeast background flow near the Big Island. Satellite derived precipitable water (PW) continues to show values near 2.0 around the southern end of the state. The overnight soundings show PW for Hilo being more than .50 inches higher than Lihue. The light winds over the smaller islands will allow for afternoon sea breezes that could lead to a few more clouds and showers over interior and lee areas. Winds are expected to start to rebound tonight, so not expecting as many land breezes. However the possibility remains for thunderstorms to form over the Big Island again this afternoon and evening.
The trough should be dissipating over the next day or so, with a ridge setting up to the northwest of the islands, allowing for more hints of a trade wind flow to start spreading across the region. A light to moderate trade wind flow will steadily increase during the second half of the week, with more widespread moderate to locally breezy trades building in late in the weekend. Expect showers to become more focused over the windward sides of the islands, especially overnight and during the early morning.
Aviation
A weak low level trough will linger over the state through twenty-four hours and beyond. The trough will both interrupt low level trade wind flow and act as a focal point for local shower development. Light southeast to northeast surface flow will steer additonal light showers off the Pacific towards the Islands. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for eastern slopes of the Big Island. Conditions may persist through the morning hours.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough slowly passing north of the state will keep the air mass over the state modestly unstable. Isolated heavy downpours are a possibility over the eastern half of the state. Radar imagery as of 1200Z reveals a band of weak CBs just offshore of the southeast coast of the Big Island. Conditions could spread inland later this morning.
Lastly, bands of layered high level clouds continue to stream out of the southwest across the Islands. Conditions are associated with the upper level trough and are expected to persist through at least the evening hours.
Marine
A slow moving north to south oriented surface trough extends from the offshore waters north of Maui to near Oahu this early Wednesday morning. It is forecast to dissipate through Thursday. As the trough dissipates over the islands, light to moderate trade winds will return to the islands. Trades are forecast to reach locally strong late in the weekend, requiring a Small Craft Advisory for the selected waters of Maui County and waters south of the Big Island for winds of 23 knots or higher.
A north swell is slated to peak today, followed by a gradual decline through Thursday. A small pulse from the north- northeast arrives Friday night and hold through the weekend, while a small northwest swell persist through the weekend. A moderate swell from the east will be trending down through Thursday, then on the rebound over the weekend due to the arrival of the small northeast swell and the strengthening trade winds. Surf along south facing shores will be close to flat through next week.
Surf action picks up next week along north and west facing shores as a series of swells from the northwest rolls in. A pair of moderate swell arrives Monday night and Wednesday. On Thursday, a moderate to large pulse will bump the surf to at or near high surf advisory levels for the north and west facing shores for some of the islands.
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