Weather Forecast

Hawaii County Weather Forecast for November 16, 2021

November 16, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

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Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

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Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A surface trough over the islands will keep winds light through mid week, with daytime sea breezes leading to a few showers and cloud build ups over the island interiors, while overnight land breezes will bring decreasing cloudiness and keep showers confined to areas near the coast. Light to moderate trade winds return Thursday and Friday with limited showers focused over the windward slopes. Increasing trade winds are expected over the weekend into early next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1008 mb low is located around 850 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, with a trailing trough extending southward through the Kaiwi Channel between Oahu and Molokai. This is keeping a light wind regime in place across the state early this morning, with land breezes present in most areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions, with cloud coverage the greatest in the vicinity of the surface trough. Radar imagery shows scattered showers mainly over the coastal waters near the surface trough, with a few showers briefly affecting areas near the immediate coast. Main short term concern during the next few days revolves around rainfall chances.
The trough of low pressure will move very little during the next couple days, lingering over the central islands today, then shifting over the eastern end of the state tonight and Wednesday, before washing out Wednesday night. This will keep a light wind regime in place across the islands, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes in many areas. Light to moderate trade winds appear to return Thursday through Friday as ridging strengthens north of the islands, with perhaps a slight easing on Saturday as a front passes by to the north of the state. The trades are forecast to ramp back up to breezy levels Sunday through early next week as a new high builds north of the island chain.
As for the remaining weather details, the overall weather pattern will change little through Wednesday, with afternoon cloud build ups and interior showers expected each day, followed by decreasing cloudiness at night with showers confined primarily to the coastal waters and areas near the coast. As the trade winds return Wednesday night, we should see showers begin to favor windward slopes and coasts. Drier than normal trade wind weather is then expected Thursday through early next week, with perhaps an increase in shower coverage Sunday and next Monday if some deeper moisture moves in from the east.

Aviation

An upper level trough just northwest of Kauai will shift slowly eastward and gradually weaken over the next twenty-four hours. A weak surface trough near Maui County will continue to act as a focal point for shower activity. Weak easterly flow at the surface will usher in additional bands of light showers off the Pacific. Southwesterly flow aloft will steer bands of mid-level layered clouds across the state.
The approaching upper level trough may generate moderate upper level turbulence over the western third of the state towards morning.
The general trend over the next day or so will be toward a more stable weather regime as the upper-level trough weakens. However, the low-level trough will linger until midweek, disrupting normal trade wind flow and acting as a continued focus for shower development.

Marine

A trough over the central waters will linger and weaken as we head into the middle of the week. Expect a light wind pattern to persist, with a general background flow from the east-southeast. A surface ridge building north of the area Thursday will bring light to locally moderate easterly trade winds back to the region for the end of the week. No small craft advisories are expected this week.
The current short period north-northwest swell will continue to lower today. Surf will remain on the small side through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as a mix of short period north and northwest swells move through the area. Surf along east facing shores will remain small with some north swell wrap expected along exposed areas. Short period choppy surf will increase later in the week and on into the weekend as trade winds gradually increase over and upwind of the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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