Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Veterans Day: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Veterans Day: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Veterans Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Veterans Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Veterans Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Veterans Day: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Veterans Day: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 67 to 72 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Relatively dry conditions will continue through Saturday. A cold front is expected move down the island chain Sunday from the northwest, then stalling and weakening over Maui County Sunday night into Monday. The front will be accompanied by some unsettled weather with the potential for some widespread rainfall. Trade winds will return to the islands behind the front.
Discussion
An east to west oriented surface ridge lies some 180 miles north of Kauai this morning, and is expected to remain there through Thursday night before shifting south to over the Big Island Saturday. This movement of the ridge is in response to a cold front approaching the islands from the northwest.
The prevailing east and southeast winds, ranging from light over the western islands to moderate over the eastern islands, will hold through Thursday night. Further veering of the wind takes place Friday when the front crosses Midway Atoll and continue southeastward toward the islands. Midway is located some 1150 miles west- northwest of Kauai. So, the winds will be shifting to southerly across the smaller islands on Friday, while the Big Island stays under a light to moderate easterly flow. On Saturday, the ridge settles in across the Big Island and along 19 degrees North latitude. Thus, maintaining southerly winds over the smaller islands and easterly winds to the south of the ridge, including the Big Island. More importantly this ridge will limit the low level tropical moisture from moving over the islands. Aloft over the islands, however, the upper level impulse will be picking up tropical moisture and carrying it over the islands by way of mid to high layered clouds. With this said, there is the potential for snow for the Big Island summits Sunday into Monday. Strong dynamics will induce scattered showers from the limited low level moisture. A few of these showers will likely be heavy, and there is slight possibility of a thunderstorm or two. We shall have a clearer picture of what’s in store for this Sunday through Monday time frame in the next day or two.
In the mean time, a few showers have popped up in the easterly wind flow in the past hour threatening the windward and east facing shores this morning. A land breeze will limit or prevent most of these showers from reaching land. We have seen a few showers reaching the Kau coast on the Big Island and Hana on Maui. As the morning progresses, the sea breezes will develop, and with daytime heating, look for some afternoon clouds and a shower or two over lee and interior areas of the smaller islands. These showers will dissipate at night as a land breeze develops, giving way to fair skies for most of the islands.
The latest GFS run had a change of mind and toned down the temporary resurgence of the trade winds tonight discussed earlier.
Aviation
Land breezes are keeping most inland areas relatively clear early this morning. Radar shows a small batch of low clouds and showers moving into east and southeast portions of the Big Island, which should trend down through the rest of the morning. Cloud buildups are expected again over inland areas this afternoon, but dry conditions will prevent much, if any, rainfall. VFR conditions will dominate. Model guidance shows strong westerly flow aloft slowly pushing off to the east of the islands by mid- morning. Therefore, AIRMET Tango for TEMPO moderate clear air turbulence between FL300 and FL450 may be cancelled entirely with the early morning routine issuance, or at least scaled back to just the area over the Big Island.
Marine
A front will dissipate just beyond the northernmost offshore waters today through Thursday. A surface ridge located 180 nm north of Kauai keep east to southeast winds on the light side across Kauai and Oahu, while moderate to fresh easterly trades hold in place over Maui County and the Big Island. The ridge will move south and settle across the Big Island Saturday, while a strong front enters the far northwest offshore waters Saturday. The front then moves down the island chain Sunday and Sunday night, then stalls and dissipates over Maui County Monday. The front and an upper level disturbance will bring some unsettled weather to the marine area.
Surf will remain very small along north facing shores through Thursday. A moderate size long-period northwest swell will arrive Thursday night, possibly nearing advisory levels on Friday, before slowly subsiding through the weekend. A new north swell will build on Sunday, peak near or just shy of advisory levels Sunday night, then slowly subside early next week.
East shore surf will remain small through the next week due to the weak trade winds over and upstream of the islands.
South shore surf will receive a nice late season boost from a long-period south swell today through Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will then trend back to smaller and more typical levels for this time of year Friday through early next week.
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