Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 68 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 74 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 74 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 75 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 68 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 49 to 57 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 67 to 75 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
The light and variable wind regime we have been experiencing recently will transition to a light northeasterly trade wind weather pattern from late this afternoon and evening through early Wednesday morning. There will continue to be clouds and a chance of showers with local sea breezes this afternoon, but low clouds and trade showers will favor windward and mauka areas from late tonight through the end of the week. Locally breezy trade winds are expected from Thursday into the weekend.
Discussion
A weak east to west oriented surface ridge is in the vicinity of the Big Island early this morning. The diffuse leading edge of a 70 mile wide band of broken low clouds and scattered showers associated with a weakening surface front is about 120 miles north-northwest of Lihue. This leading edge has been moving toward the southeast at 15 to 20 mph during the past few hours. Elsewhere, a 1024 mb surface high pressure system is far northwest of Hawaii near 36N 173W. This feature, is moving toward the east at about 20 mph.
The close proximity of the weak surface ridge and front to the state is maintaining light and variable winds in the vicinity of the islands. THe atmosphere is also stable across the state. The precipitable water values near Kauai are around 1.3 inches, and about 1.0 inch in the vicinity of the Big Island. Satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data show low clouds and light showers moving down from the northwest over portions of the smaller islands, especially from Oahu to Maui.
The forecast guidance continues to indicate the front will deteriorate as it approaches Kauai later today. The surface ridge near the Big Island will also gradually erode during the next several hours, while the surface high pressure system, which is currently far northwest of the islands, will be about 1000 miles north-northwest of Honolulu about 12 hours from now. This likely means that we will be in a transition period starting later today. Therefore, the light and variable background flow will probably remain in place this morning, but light northeasterly winds may begin to become established from this afternoon through tonight. Note that the winds will probably be light enough to allow local sea breeze circulations to form over most of the individual islands this afternoon. The arrival of the dissipating front near Kauai may cause an increase in low clouds and showers over the western end of the island chain later today and tonight. Elsewhere, there will likely be another period of clouds and a chance of showers in sea breeze convergence zones this afternoon over the islands east of Kauai.
From late tonight through Wednesday, expect northeast to east trade winds to become established across the state. This will mean a return of low clouds and showers mainly over windward and mauka areas, especially during the nighttime through the early morning hours. A residual band of moisture associated with the dissipated front will likely bring an increase in showers over some of the smaller islands from Wednesday through Friday. The easterly trade winds are expected to be breezy again starting Thursday, and continuing into next weekend.
Aviation
For the remainder of this morning, land breezes and isolated showers over the open ocean will prevail. However, by afternoon, sea breeze development should help initiate showers over interior and mountainous portions of all islands.
Expect light to moderate trade winds to filter back into the region by late this evening and into tonight.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.
Marine
A large, long period north-northwest swell is on the way. A rapid rise in the surf is expected for Kauai’s north and west facing shores at around sunrise. The swell will continue to spread eastward to from Oahu to Maui for the rest of the day. A High Surf Warning is in effect for the north and west facing shores of most smaller islands, good until 6 am HST Wednesday. As the surf falls below warning levels, a High Surf Advisory takes over, covering the rest of Wednesday. A northeast swell will be arriving Wednesday that will raise the surf to small to moderate levels along east facing shores. On Friday, a small to moderate northwest pulse reaches the island’s north and west shores. Lastly, a small to moderate north swell arrives Tuesday of next week.
A series of long period south swells will maintain small surf along south facing shores through early next week. Returning and strengthening trade winds Wednesday into Friday will gradually build the surf along east facing shores to moderate levels.
There is currently a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) due to elevated seas of 10 feet or higher, associated with the north-northwest swell. This advisory is good till 6 am HST Wednesday. A SCA due to winds of 20 to 25 knots is slated to come into play on Wednesday night at the earliest for the selected waters of Maui County and waters south of the Big Island.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, and for north facing shores of Maui.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
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