Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to 67 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 72 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.
Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 25 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Showers will remain focused over windward and mauka areas through mid-morning followed by improving conditions late this morning and early this afternoon. Locally breezy trades will weaken to moderate and may become light during mid-to-late week. Drier than normal conditions are forecast through the week.
Discussion
The depth of incoming trade wind showers has decreased over the last couple of hours as they succumb to the resident stable airmass. Per the morning upper air observations, the inversion currently slopes downward from around 6kft at Hilo to 4.5kft at Lihue. As a consequence, satellite estimates suggest even the tallest cloud tops struggling to exceed 7,000 ft in depth. Showers are therefore expected to remain mostly confined to windward areas with any leeward precipitation likely to be quite light and may not even be measurable. Conditions will improve during mid- to- late morning in response to diurnal forcing and as the incoming moisture axis shifts west of the area. Breezy trades will then hold through Monday.
Consensus exists among the global models that an amplifying mid- level trough will establish between about 160W and 150W from mid- week onward, Hawaii residing along the southern periphery of cyclonic flow aloft. Sandwiched between subtropical riding on either side, an emerging col in the surface pressure pattern will cause a reduction in trades as early as Tuesday that will continue through the week. The net effect on local sensible weather will be drier weather, warmer afternoons and, if the gradient sufficiently diminishes, the emergence of land/sea breezes – most likely over the western end of the state.
Aviation
High pressure north of the islands will support locally breezy trade winds into Monday, and AIRMET Tango will remain posted for moderate low-level turbulence to the lee of the terrain. The island atmosphere will remain stable, with VFR conditions prevailing. However, some increase in low-level moisture will bring a few brief showers to windward areas this morning, producing brief MVFR conditions.
Marine
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds will continue through Monday, then ease into the light to moderate range Monday night through midweek as a weakness in the ridge forms in response to a passing front to the north. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in place for the typically windier waters and channels from Oahu to the Big Island through Monday. Seas should hover just below the 10 ft advisory-level over these windier waters into Monday, then lower Tuesday through midweek. For the extended period (midweek through next weekend), guidance depicts the progressive pattern continuing across the northern Pacific, which suggests an increasing likelihood for the lighter winds to stick around.
Surf along north facing shores will remain up through the last week of October with overlapping north-northeast to north-northwest swells moving through due to the aforementioned active pattern across the northern Pacific. The north swell that quickly ramped up and peaked Friday night is on its way down this morning per the latest buoy observations. This downward trend will be short- lived with the next long-period, northerly swell arriving and building later today through tonight. Expect a peak Monday through Tuesday below the advisory-level of 15 ft (faces) for north facing shores. This will be followed by a north-northwest swell arriving late Tuesday from the developing hurricane-force low currently racing northeastward toward the Date Line/Aleutians today. Guidance suggest the peak from this source occurring Tuesday night, then easing Wednesday through Thursday. A medium- period, north-northwest swell arriving late Thursday should keep the surf up through Friday.
Surf along south facing shores will trend up by midweek as a late season, south-southwest swell arrives and moves through. Otherwise, mainly background, south swells and short-period, southeast trade wind energy moving through are expected.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy through Monday, then lower Tuesday through midweek as the local winds ease. The exception will be along east facing shores exposed to northerly swell moving through.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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