Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 57 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A surface trough east of the islands and a weak disturbance aloft will combine to keep trades light and the atmosphere a little more unstable over the next couple of days. Local daytime sea breezes will cause showers to favor interior and leeward sections during the afternoons and evenings. There will also be some windward and mauka showers as well, mainly during the nights and mornings. The trough and disturbance still start to move away on Wednesday, with drier, breezy trades making a gradual return from east to west later Wed into Thu. We expect locally windy weather Friday as high pressure develops to the north of the Aloha State. Trades will weaken over the upcoming holiday weekend.
Discussion
A surface trough just over 200 miles E and NE of PHNL passed buoy 51100 about 07z and the wind there has switched to the SE. The trough is moving slowly toward the W at about 8 mph. Even though moisture is quite limited with precipitable water (PW) of only about an inch at Lihue and 1.2 at Hilo, scattered showers ahead of the trough are being enhanced by a 700 mb low over the islands which has raised and weakend the usual tradewind inversion over the state. The late evening ASCAT pass showed a sizable area of light winds to the S and SE of the surface trough that should move over the Hawaiian Islands today. Thus, gentle trades will become sea breezes today for most areas.
The combination of the approaching surface trough and mid-level low overhead should lead to a fairly active convective pattern this afternoon despite somewhat limited moisture. This idea is supported by the high resolution guidance, which suggests active downpours will develop in the usual interior and leeward sections this afternoon. Most of these downpours should be brief, but have added a mention of locally heavy rain for the afternoon for the usual locales.
Afternoon convection will fade this evening and as the trough and mid-level low continue moving west and weaken. Behind the axis of the trough, the background flow will turn SE, but with local land breezes taking over in protected locations. Some interior and leeward areas will see at least partial clearing overnight, while the SE flow brings some clouds and showers. These will tend to favor windward and mauka sections, but some south shores might get some rainfall as well.
The SE flow will draw additional moisture up over the islands on Wed, even as mid level temperatures start to warm. The smaller islands will probably be in the wind shadow of the Big Island for most of the day, so additional afternoon convection and/or downwind convergence plumes should allow additional showers through much of the day. The trades will start to build back in later Wed, but won’t firmly take hold until Wed night or Thu.
Today through Wed, a sharpening tropical upper tropospheric trough or TUTT to our NW will continue to bring high level moisture up over the islands from the SW. Patchy cirrus clouds will stream over the islands leading to occasional high cloudiness. Initially this will be mainly thin and near the Big Island, but guidance shows this cirrus likely becoming thicker near Kauai and possibly Oahu later Wed into Thu, before shifting away to our W.
Definitively drier and more stable air return on breezy trades starting Thu. The trades may become locally windy on Fri as a 1028 mb high consolidates about 900 mi N of Honolulu near 34N 157W. Might have to keep an eye on Fri as a potential Red Flag Warning day with fire weather concerns if the dewpoints dry out enough. The high remains quasi-stationary and weakens after that, for trades to ease over the holiday weekend. The background flow may turn SE again around the islands by Labor Day if the models are correct.
Aviation
Land breezes have developed over the islands while very light trades continue to slowly push locally heavy showers and pockets of MVFR Windward Oahu. After sunrise, sea breeze development will shift the focus for showers and MVFR to leeward and interior areas. Over Windward Big Island, light winds will once again allow clouds and showers to shift well upslope from PHTO favoring dry weather and higher ceilings there. Land breezes will bring clearing tonight.
Marine
Little change to the forecast with the morning package. High pressure remains far to the north, along with a surface trough to the northeast. This combination will maintain a light trade wind pattern through tonight. The trough is expected to move westward, pass north of the islands, and be northwest of the islands Wednesday. This will allow the trade winds to build back over the region from E to W later on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will likely be strong enough over the typical windier areas near Maui County and the Big Island Thursday to warrant Small Craft Advisories (SCA). The trade winds are expected to strengthen further Friday, which could support expanding the SCA to most, if not all, waters.
No significant swells are expected through the weekend. A series of small south and southeast swells will maintain small surf through the period. East shore surf will remain very small until trade winds increase during the second half of the week.
This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Big Island Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments
