Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 72 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northeast up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northeast up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 72 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 90 near the shore to 67 to 74 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the southeast up to 15 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Mostly dry and breezy trade wind conditions will continue through the weekend with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain locations through the overnight and early morning periods. Trades will diminish Monday through Tuesday as a trough passes to the north from east to west. This will give way to a land and sea breeze pattern driving clouds and a few showers over interior and leeward locations through the afternoons. A return of breezy trade wind conditions are expected Wednesday through the second half of the week.

Discussion

Moderate to breezy northeasterly trade winds will continue through Sunday. Showers will favor windward the mauka areas, mainly through the overnight and early morning periods. With the exception of the Kona slopes, the drought conditions will continue over our leeward areas with little to no rainfall in the forecast. The best chances for any leeward showers will come Monday through Tuesday as upper heights lower and a surface trough passes to the north. This will shut the trades off locally, which will translate to a land and sea breeze regime setting up. Although the better instability will remain positioned off to the north beneath an upper low, a few afternoon showers over our parched leeward soils can’t be ruled out. With the lack of any deep moisture, rainfall accumulations will remain limited.
For the extended period, guidance remains in decent agreement and shows a return of a more typical trade wind pattern Wednesday through the second half of the week as the upper low and surface trough continue westward and away from the region. Clouds and showers will shift back over windward and mountain locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor north and east facing slopes and coasts. Windward shower activity is expected to decrease in the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated spillover showers expected across leeward areas of the smaller islands–especially overnight.
For Leeward Big Island, light afternoon sea breezes will encourage cumulus development along south and west facing slopes. However, a well defined inversion around 09 kft will limit shower development and minimize precipitation amounts.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence over and downwind of the mountains of all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through Saturday evening and possibly Sunday evening.

Marine

High pressure far N of the islands will support locally strong trade winds today, maintaining Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions for the typically windier areas around the Big Island and Maui County. Wind speeds will begin to trend down tonight and Sunday, as a developing low-level trough to the distant NE loosens the low-level pressure gradient, especially over the E end of the chain. This may also briefly and subtly back winds to the NE over the Kauai end of the chain. As the trough moves W, and passes N of the islands on Monday and Tuesday, light E/SE winds are anticipated statewide. E trade winds will strengthen on Wednesday as the trough moves W of the area, but may still be veered to the SE near Kauai.
A long-lived, long-period WNW swell will have several pulses that arrive through early next week. A relatively small S swell will persist through the weekend. A large, long-lived, long period S swell will have several pulses that arrive from Monday through Wednesday, with peak surf heights along S facing shores likely reaching our new advisory threshold of 10 feet (faces). Surf along E facing shores will remain small for the next several days, while a long-period E swell from distant Hurricane Linda may arrive by the middle of the upcoming week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov