Hilo

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Isolated showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Waimea

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kohala

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 64. Breezy, with an east wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 53. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 64. Breezy, with an east wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an east wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Windy, with an east wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Puna

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 82. West northwest wind 8 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 64. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 82. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. East wind 7 to 11 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds are expected through the holiday weekend as high pressure strengthens to the northeast. Any showers that develop will favor windward and mauka areas, mainly through the overnight and early morning periods as pockets of moisture move through. With the exception of the Kona slopes of the Big Island through the afternoons, the drought conditions will persist over leeward areas with little to no rainfall expected.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the subtropical ridge strengthening to the north today through Thursday as a weak trough dissipates well northwest of the area. Trades will respond and increase into the moderate to breezy category today, which should persist through the holiday weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Dry and stable conditions aloft combined with a strong subsidence inversion should limit accumulations each day, with little to none expected over the dry leeward areas.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate trade winds will steer multiple bands of light showers towards east facing slopes and coasts. Early morning infrared satellite imagery reveals extensive cloud cover extending across the adjacent waters north thru east of the islands as well as the northeast slopes and coasts of the Big Island.
An AIRMET for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for northeast slopes of the Big Island. Conditions are expected to end towards noon as daytime heating promotes lifting and clearing. By late afternoon, VFR conditions should prevail all areas.
Trade wind speeds are expected to gradually increase over the next twenty-four hours. This, combined with a strong subsidence inversion around 7 kft, will likely necessitate an AIRMET for low level turbulence later today.

Marine

Winds will become fresh to locally strong over the next few days as a high far northeast of the area builds southwest. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for waters around the Big Island and Maui. The SCA may need to be expanded in coverage towards the end of the week as the trade winds strengthen further.
A new south swell building this morning will likely peak tonight, then slowly subside through Friday. A larger south swell is expected to arrive on Independence Day and peak late Monday into Tuesday. Surf from this swell could reach advisory levels over the holiday weekend. A small northwest swell is expected Friday into Saturday. Strengthening trade winds may bring an increase of choppy surf along east facing shores late this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov