Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Memorial Day: Isolated showers after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Memorial Day: Isolated showers after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East wind 6 to 13 mph becoming west in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. West northwest wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Southwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Waimea

Memorial Day: Scattered showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 79. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Breezy, with a light north northeast wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kohala

Memorial Day: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. East northeast wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. East southeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

South Big Island

Memorial Day: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Puna

Memorial Day: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a low around 63. East southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind 5 to 11 mph becoming east northeast in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waikoloa

Memorial Day: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. South southeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Light and variable wind becoming east 6 to 11 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect a land and sea breeze weather pattern today, with increased clouds and scant afternoon and evening showers across interior and mauka areas. A more typical trade wind pattern will return Tuesday, then continue through next weekend.

Discussion

Short-term guidance remains in good agreement and depicts a weakness in the ridge lingering today due to a front passing to the north. The low-level flow has veered out of the south over the western end of the state and southeast over the eastern end in response to the loosened pressure gradient and the ridge that has shifted south over the area. This will result in a land and sea breeze regime continuing today. Although sea breezes will lead to clouds and showers setting up over interior and mauka locations through the afternoon hours, rising upper heights and subsidence aloft will limit rainfall chances/accumulations.
Guidance remains in decent agreement and shows a return of a more typical trade wind pattern Tuesday through Wednesday as the front to the north diminishes and the ridge strengthens. Clouds and showers will shift back over windward and mountain locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours. Guidance does depict the moisture axis associated with the tail- end of the front drifting southward into the western end of the state by Thursday. If this holds together, better windward shower coverage can’t be ruled out Thursday into Friday. Dry and stable conditions, however, should limit accumulations. Expect the trade wind pattern to continue through next weekend.

Aviation

Land breezes will continue to keep most of the showers and low level cloud cover over the open ocean for the next several hours. By late morning, however, expect sea breezes to develop and bring showers to elevated terrain and over island interiors. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may accompany this activity.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Light and variable winds will persist over the western islands today, while light to moderate east-southeasterly winds prevail over the eastern end of the state. Trade winds will return from east to west across the island chain tonight and Tuesday, and strengthen to moderate and locally strong levels Wednesday into the weekend.
A series of small southerly swells will keep near to slightly below normal surf in place along south facing shores through Thursday. South shore surf could trend up slightly late in the week and over the weekend, as a couple new overlapping south and south-southwest swells move through.
The current northwest swell will slowly trend upward through Tuesday, bringing a boost to surf along north and west facing shores. After peaking Tuesday, this swell will trend downward Wednesday through Friday, with north shore surf likely going flat over the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain very small through Tuesday, then trend upward Wednesday through the weekend as the trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov