Hilo

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. West wind 6 to 10 mph becoming north northeast in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Occasional showers. Low around 65. North wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Light and variable wind becoming north northeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: Scattered showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 63. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 80. East southeast wind around 6 mph becoming west in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waimea

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Windy, with a northeast wind 19 to 24 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kohala

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 71. Windy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Occasional showers. Low around 48. Windy, with an east northeast wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Windy, with an east northeast wind 19 to 24 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Windy, with an east wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Windy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 75. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Puna

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 74. North wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Occasional showers. Low around 63. North northwest wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. North wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Windy, with an east northeast wind 24 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Windy, with an east wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Windy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Mostly dry and cool conditions with breezy northeast trade winds will prevail into the second half of the week. The best chance for showers will remain over windward and mountain areas through the overnight and early morning hours as bands of moisture move through. Trade winds will hold out of the northeast over the weekend, but trend down enough for localized land and sea breezes to develop. Shower coverage may increase by Sunday as an upper disturbance moves into the area. A return of dry and breezy conditions will be possible early next week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts mostly dry and stable conditions with breezy northeast trades holding into the second half of the week due to strong high pressure anchored north of the region. An occasional band of moisture moving through, however, will support spotty showers over windward and mountain locations – mainly through the overnight and early morning periods. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 50s will keep the pleasant conditions in place.
Guidance supports a transition period over the weekend as strong high pressure to the north shifts east and weakens over the far northeast Pacific. Northeast trades will persist locally, but ease into the light to moderate range – enough for localized land and sea breezes to develop. A modest increase in moisture combined with lowering upper heights due to a shortwave trough dropping south into the area will support better shower coverage over the islands Saturday night through Sunday night.
Although the forecast confidence begins to diminish, a drying trend along with a return of breezy and stable northeast trades is possible through the first half of next week.

Aviation

Strong surface high pressure remains far north of the state early this morning. In addition, a surface low is located about 1150 miles northeast of Honolulu. As a result of the circulations around these features, breezy northeasterly trade wind flow will persist today across the state.
Currently, broken low clouds and scattered showers are being transported by the strong trades into northeastern sections of the islands, especially over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island. Expect periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities over most northeast sections this morning as additional clouds and showers stream into the islands from the northeast. Some clearing may take place later today as daytime heating causes a decrease in cloud cover and shower activity.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for north through east sections of Maui and the Big Island for Tempo mountain obscuration above 2500 feet due to clouds and showers. This AIRMET may be needed for additional islands west of Maui later this morning.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for mechanical low-level turbulence below 7000 feet over and immediately south through west of the higher terrain on all islands. This AIRMET will likely be needed through this evening.

Marine

High pressure north of the islands will keep fresh to strong trades in place through tonight. The trades will gradually trend down Thursday and Friday as the high north of the state weakens, with light to moderate trades expected over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all waters through 6 AM Thursday, and through 6 PM Thursday for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.
The current north-northeast swell will hold fairly steady through tonight, then slowly decline Thursday through the weekend. This will keep surf elevated along north and east facing shores through the rest of the work week, before surf drops to near or slightly below normal levels this weekend into early next week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for east facing shores through 6 PM Thursday, and may need to be extended through Thursday night and possibly Friday. This swell may also produce surges in north facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo. See the Marine Weather Statement for more details.
South shore surf will remain small through the work week, with mainly background south swells moving through. A larger long- period south swell is expected to give surf a boost over the weekend into early next week.
A small northwest swell may give surf a boost along north and west facing shores early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for HIZ009, HIZ017, Kauai East, Koolau Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov