Hurricane Lane to Cross Into Central Pacific Basin on Saturday

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that at 11 a.m., the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 134.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion between west and west-northwest is expected during the entire forecast period, and Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid intensification is expected for the next 24 hours, and Lane is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight, and could become a category 4 hurricane on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

A series of microwave overpasses and conventional visible/infrared imagery show that Lane’s inner core continues to develop rapidly. The eye in the visible presentation has begun to clear out, and the
lower frequency microwave images show a completely enclosed, solid inner convective ring. The subjective and objective T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt.

The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 6 hours ago, and Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane intensity later tonight, and has the potential to become a category 4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable enough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional and statistical intensity guidance reflect strengthening, but the NHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCCA and the IVCN consensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane should begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly shear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of HCCA and IVCN at these times.

The initial motion continues to be westward or 275/14 kt. Lane is forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days. Little change
was made to the official track forecast, with only minor along-track adjustments after 72 hours, and the NHC forecast is basically a compromise of the various consensus models.