Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tuesday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then mostly sunny late in the morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tuesday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 83 near the shore to 64 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 83 near the shore to 64 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy northeast to east trade winds will prevail through the week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods as areas of moisture move through. The trade winds may ease slightly next weekend as the ridge weakens to the north.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement through the week and depicts mostly benign conditions persisting with the subtropical ridge remaining in place to the north. Moderate to breezy northeast trades will continue today, then shift out of the east tonight through Tuesday as a residual band of moisture settles southward into the area. This band of moisture will stall in the area and slowly diminish through midweek. This will support increasing windward shower coverage, with some showers making it over to our leeward sections of the smaller islands.
The breezy trades may ease slightly next weekend into early next week as the ridge weakens to the north in response to deep low pressure developing far northwest of the state near Midway.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will prevail during the next few days as a surface high builds north of the islands. SHRA and some MVFR conds are possible for windward and mauka locations. VFR conds will prevail over leeward areas.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Big Island. This may need canceled as conds improve this morning.
AIRMET Tango in effect for mod turb for all islands.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will slowly drift east and strengthen over the next several days, resulting in strengthening trade winds over the Hawaii region. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday for the typical windier waters around Maui and the Big Island.
Surf heights along all shores will remain below advisory thresholds through the end of this week. A moderate, medium period north swell will decrease today before another medium period northwest swell builds into the region from late Wednesday into Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will rise and become choppy as trade winds strengthen. South facing shores will continue to see small background swell pulses through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov