Hilo

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to 61 to 66 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to 47 to 52 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to 61 to 66 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 70 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 63 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue through Friday. Expect enhanced trade wind showers through Thursday morning as a band of unsettled clouds rides through the islands on the trade winds. These showers will mainly form over windward and mountain slopes, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Trade wind speeds will decrease slightly this weekend as high pressure weakens to the north and a low pressure system deepens far northwest of the island chain.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning continues to show a long band of unstable clouds embedded in the trade wind flow creeping towards Hawaii from the east. This unsettled cloud band will produce periods of showers mainly over windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Expect decreasing shower coverage during the daylight hours. This period of enhanced showers will likely continue through Thursday morning.
In the big picture, a high pressure system will continue to linger 1000 miles northeast of the island chain through Friday, producing breezy to locally trade winds across the Hawaii region. Wind speeds may approach Wind Advisory thresholds in some wind favored locations over the Big Island from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. However, we are expecting wind speeds to remain just below advisory thresholds for these windier zones.
This high center will drift farther east from Friday to Saturday decreasing trade wind speeds as a cut off low pressure system deepens approximately 1000 miles northwest of Kauai. The cut off low at this time remains too far northwest of the islands to impact island weather. Expect winds to veer from a more east to southeast direction this weekend, and to decrease into more moderate trade wind levels from Saturday to Sunday. The weather forecast for this weekend appears fairly dry and sunny, another great weekend for outdoor activities.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will prevail for the next couple of days as a surface ridge remains to the north of the islands. Cloud bands with SHRA are moving in bringing MVFR conds to windward and mauka areas. Isol SHRA may make it to lee sides periodically dropping conds to MVFR but those should be brief.
AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc is in effect for all islands and windward Big Island.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turb downwind of the terrain for all islands.

Marine

An area of high pressure will meander northeast of the state over the next few days, driving strong to locally near gale trades. The high is forecast to weaken over the weekend as a deep low develops northwest of the area. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through tonight and will likely need to be extended for all or most waters through Thursday.
Surf heights along all shores will remain below advisory thresholds through the forecast period. A small, medium period northwest swell will fill in tonight, peak Thursday night. Another small, medium period northwest pulse will fill in Friday, peak late Friday into Saturday, and subside Sunday. Choppy, rough surf is expected all week along east facing shores due to persistent trade winds. A slight downtrend in surf is expected along east facing shores over the weekend as trades ease. South facing shores will continue to see small background swell pulses through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov